2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Did Chatham completely update though? Was that all of it?

Though isn't there still like ~30K total out with Trump only up 3.5K?

[wbrocks67]

Biden literally netted nearly everything (~10K) that just came in in Philly

[wbrocks67]

Did Biden hit his benchmark in Chatham?

also was it the rest of the vote in Chatham? the entire vote

[wbrocks67]

So I wrote a long post going over all the remaining counties with less than 90% reporting and Atlas decided to log me out so this is going to be brief.

Once all the suburban and urban votes are counted (including Allegheny, which inexplicably stopped) it should be in a near tie, give or take around 10k votes. Excluding those most of the remaining votes are mail ins from heavily Republican counties. The mail ins we've seen for comparable counties like Tioga and Blair have gone narrowly for Trump and it seems likely that most of the remaining counties will also be quite close. Depending on how reporting goes its possible people will overreact if a bunch of these Trump leaning mail ins drop all at once.

Fortunately Biden still has outstanding votes left in Center and Monroe, both of which favour him. My guess is that those two counties will secure Biden victory, but quite possibly by less than 1%. The remaining ballots definitely aren't likely to continue the Erie/Cumberland trend except for Monroe and Center.

There is like ~100K still out in Philly. Allegheny still has 35K out. That's more than enough in just the 2.

[wbrocks67]

NYT now showing the 64K vote difference in PA. Looks like some of the recent ballots have come in from Erie and Lehigh counties, since they've both flipped to Biden on the map as well.

Yep Erie still has at least 3K and Lehigh still has a good chunk out too. Monroe as well, and I think Delco has like 10k-15k left too

[wbrocks67]

Re. GA: It seems like Clayton still has about 6k votes left. Biden will net about 4K in margin from this county and then it will come down to Gwinnett (7k) and Forsyth (4k). Cobb also has about 700 more ballots.

seems like Biden still on track for a 5-10k win

[wbrocks67]

oh and Bucks stubbornly still has 20-25K mail ins left too. Biden was winning those 77%

[wbrocks67]

19K votes left in GA.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1324508350827081730

Biden just needs to win them like 11.5K-7.5K to be 500 over

[wbrocks67]

Isn't this not true? Isn't there stuff out in Cobb and Gwinnett?

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324510129580990464

[wbrocks67]

I hope Biden breaks Obama's 2008 total in Philly. He's 83k votes away.

That's why I think the "ballots out in Philly" # is wrong - Biden is definitely passing Hillary 2016

[wbrocks67]

Also, PA would be even closer right now if Allegheny would've gotten their sh*t together and counted 35K

[wbrocks67]

Trump getting 51% in latest Pima County drop, 12% more than the 39% he had before.

Do we know what makeup of Pima was expected to be though? Apparently the remaining Maricopa are more Indie-focused, but honestly who knows.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1324518073072844800

I mean, yeah, its an "if" but the VBM has been steady Biden 76-78% for a long, long time

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324519394530136064

wait so was that Pima drop good for Trump so far?

[wbrocks67]

I really need Clayton to come in soon. NEED to see blue georgia on the map

[wbrocks67]

CNN reporting Bucks County just dropped 8K votes: Biden 5837, Trump 2863.

67-33. Biden only needed to get 60%.

At least 12K votes still out in Bucks, possibly up to 17K, if the 20-25K estimate was true

[wbrocks67]

Delco: Biden 3272, Trump 807 (per CNN)

80-20, way more than what he needs

[wbrocks67]

If Biden just matches Hillarys 2016 philly total, that would add 80K to his margin alone, which would put him 22K above. With nothing else.

[wbrocks67]

Biden only down 53K in PA! +5K

[wbrocks67]

How much of Philly is still out?

286K mails counted in Philly right now. According to DOS, 358K mail were returned. So at least 72K are left. But I think that's conservative. Would only bring Biden to a few thousands *less* than Hillary's Philly total

[wbrocks67]

Lehigh Co: Trump 2416, Biden 7481

76-24, again way above what Biden needs.

[wbrocks67]

Had Allegheny County been able to report today this probably would have been over now.

Exactly. They could've put an end to this even quicker...

[wbrocks67]

Holy hell, Trump is getting absolutely destroyed in Delaware county, PA.

Not really, it didn't change much from 2016.

A little bit... Clinton +22 in 2016 and Biden +25 right now with about 10K still out I think.

[wbrocks67]

Had Allegheny County been able to report today this probably would have been over now.

Exactly. They could've put an end to this even quicker...

Allegheny Co. clerk is on the phone with CNN right now.  Says they hope to begin reprocessing 28K ballots that were delayed by address issues at 5pm tomorrow, and another batch of 7K that had other issues they will start on at 9am tomorrow.

He also said mail ballots so far have been running 81-19 Biden.

5 *PM* are you kidding me?

[wbrocks67]

GA really teased us with that 3K Trump lead and now they are taking forever naturally