2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

What are the chances we're heading to another 2000?

Eh... not really. Biden will likely get PA, so that's a wrap. There's no way a recount in Wisconsin would net Trump 20k votes.

[wbrocks67]

It would certainly be something if we end up about with the same result as 2016 in NV

[wbrocks67]

Clark only reported 14k new mail votes, Biden won by 30%, they still have about 65k mail-in votes to count.

If all of the Clark vote is mail, then it seems like Biden will net a healthy lead from it.

[wbrocks67]

Glad this sh**t likely won't hang on AZ, b/c this is absurd

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1324399552376508418

[wbrocks67]

Not sure what places like Erie, Lehigh, etc. in PA are doing. They haven't really reported any new mail ins in a while.

[wbrocks67]

Trump lead goes down to 13.5K in GA

[wbrocks67]

For both GA and PA, it's becoming very clear the mail-in votes are going to be significantly more Democratic than the counted vote so far - something on the order of 50-60% more in PA and maybe 20-30% more in GA (in counties where the D vote isn't already 80%+). You can tell how the votes might lean by looking at the 2016 results - most counties in PA are either flat are even more D this election so if the current totals show the opposite trend, you can bet the difference is the outstanding mail-in votes.

It's pretty safe to say Biden is going to end up winning PA and it's probably not going to be all that close either.

Yep, mail ballots even in pretty R counties are still giving Biden leads

[wbrocks67]

So there was 61K earlier that were left to be *counted* in GA. How much is left now?

[wbrocks67]

Georgia down to 14,100 Trump lead per NYT.

I would watch DDHQ, they're a bit quicker

[wbrocks67]

21K ballots left in Bucks County, PA. Biden leads by 2 right now. If they break how they've been breaking, Biden will lead Bucks by 5. Hillary won by 1.

[wbrocks67]

50,401 ballots outstanding in GA

Well that would certainly bode well for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I have had some bad takes this cycle but I DID tell people not to sleep on PA, and that it wouldn't be so much more redder than WI/MI

[wbrocks67]

So far, Colorado has voted for Biden by a greater margin than Illinois

Illinois apparently has a lot more mails to count

[wbrocks67]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

[wbrocks67]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Loosing 70-30

She actually tweeted a pretty gracious concession and congratulated Mfume.

She's at 29% while the R in 2018 was at 21%. Can't tell if this is an overperformance or if MD just still has a ton of votes out. Totals look small-ish compared to 2018 so I would assume they are waiting on ballots

[wbrocks67]

Has someone checked on Kimberly Klacik

Loosing 70-30

She actually tweeted a pretty gracious concession and congratulated Mfume.

I would not call this gracious lol

https://twitter.com/kimKBaltimore/status/1323845115958493185

[wbrocks67]

If Biden wins Georgia, then that's going to be a HUGE accomplishment. But sadly, Trump might get his way and steal this election via the courts. He always gets his way.

In retrospect, people may question Biden/Obama/Harris stops in TX, IA, and OH (though TX did still overperform from 2016 by 3%+), but it looks like their stops were generally really good. They did stop frequently in FL too, but they had to, even if they knew the goose was cooked

> Focus on blue wall
> Harris/Obama/Biden all stop in GA

[wbrocks67]

More than I thought still. Biden really could pull out a pretty big win in PA.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324420356187172870

[wbrocks67]

Will be getting Biden's victory speech tonight?

If PA actually counts, then hopefully.

I mean, the noon thing should've been taken lightly. Boockvar has saying since last night though that we should be done nearly counting by the end of today.

[wbrocks67]

So Biden needs just 60% in Pennsylvania now?

And he's been winning them by nearly 80%. It's quite possible PA is not close.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

[wbrocks67]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

Yikes polling ....

Safe to say if it was +10 like polling showed he would’ve carried Texas, FLA & NC

Should have trusted RV numbers, they (and Ipsos) have Biden +5 or so.

The likely voter screens were helping Dems for the first time I can remember and didn’t know how to process that. Lesson relearned.

It's funny too bc the PA polling was way lower than MI/WI, but it's quite possible the +4.8 or average or whatever won't be incredibly off from the final total in PA.

[wbrocks67]

OMG

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 6m ago

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.


are you kidding me? it should not take 24 hours to count another batch

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the data is looking pretty grim for Trump. If the remaining absentees vote the same way as the counted absentees in their counties, my calculations show Biden on track to lead by 5-10k votes. There are still provisionals after that which many counties will add back in but that's usually a Democratic leaning group.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

Biden deciding to go to GA last week and Obama hitting it one more time on Monday look to be a really great decision on Biden team's part

[wbrocks67]

FiveThirtyEight thinks GA is a better bet for Biden than PA

Where are you seeing this? I am seeing them saying that Biden probably wins both.

Yeah it literally doesn't say that at all lol