2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 644774 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2020, 05:21:45 PM »
GA exit poll:
Economy: Trump 50, Biden 47
Coronavirus: Biden 50, Trump 47

Seems more normal than the FL one
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2020, 05:22:41 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 03, 2020, 05:21:40 PM
Dont these exit polls also reach out to early voters?  They'd be meaningless otherwise when the majority of people voted early.

They do, but it's possible they may not be accounting for the large portion of early voters. Who knows what the make up is
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2020, 05:23:51 PM »
GA electorate for the exit poll: 60% white/40% nonwhite
37% R, 35% D
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 05:25:04 PM »
GA exit poll: 50% approve/48% disapprove
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 05:26:16 PM »
Who can extrapolate this from the 52/42 overall total for this question

Per CNN: Roughly 7 in 10 Trump backers say rebuilding the economy should be the nation's priority over containing the spread of the virus, while among Biden supporters, nearly 8 in 10 go the other way, saying that containing the coronavirus should be the bigger priority.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 05:30:45 PM »
IOWA exit poll

52% women, 48% men

Coronavirus: 50% Biden, 47% Trump
Economy: 52% Trump, 44% Biden

Party ID: 34% Rep, 28% Dem, 38% Other

In 2018, it was D37, R33, I30

So these also seem very off. Sounds again like they got too many election day voters
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 05:32:05 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 03, 2020, 05:31:05 PM


Yeah, CNN seriously over sampled election day voters. 61% of those sampled voted on election day.

omg what in the world. Even if 160M vote, that's 100M early and 60M on election day. That's insanely lopsided.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 05:35:48 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 03, 2020, 05:27:30 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on November 03, 2020, 05:26:36 PM
Biden Official says FLORIDA IS A TOUGH LIFT?

Doesn't square up with the data we're seeing, so I'm guessing it's to lower expectations

The campaigns are never going to give the truth and say omg we're doing so well! come on now
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 05:38:57 PM »
The CNN exit poll has a whiter Michigan electorate than 2018. Seems unlikely. Also only D+4, while 2018 was D+8.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 05:39:52 PM »
The issue is that there is no proof that the CNN poll weighted?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 05:40:42 PM »
Also, it just makes sense that COVID would be the top issue. There's no way it would be... #3 below racial inequality.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 05:54:31 PM »
CNN NC exit poll showing Trump with a +2 approval, but whites at only 63%. The 2016 NC exit poll was 70% white/30% nonwhite. It's 63% white/37% nonwhite this time but still has Trump at +2 approval... not sure how you square that
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 05:56:11 PM »
So polls close in an hour and Reps can only get +200K in FL? Though I'm surprised Reps are increasing at all, since Dems seem to vote closer at night
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 05:57:06 PM »
Quote from: TopShelfGoal on November 03, 2020, 05:55:36 PM
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323759400364974081

R lead 1.89 up 0.1 in the last well short of the margins they need to hit to end up with R+3 or higher. At this point they will barely trickle over R+2 if this pace keeps up.

This dump also includes the 5-5:30 pm post work half hour, no GOP surge so far.

does this dump even include Miami Dade?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 07:18:48 PM »

Dems have had a lead in Miami Dade the entire time, how is that possible
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2020, 07:19:26 PM »
Isn't Election Day in FL not even in yet?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2020, 07:22:02 PM »
South Carolina exit polls are REAL wonky... Harrison losing the 18-29 vote lol
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2020, 07:23:56 PM »
Is it possible this is just one like batch of early votes in FL and doesnt include mail?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2020, 07:24:53 PM »
Quote from: Statilius the Epicurean on November 03, 2020, 07:23:28 PM
John King on CNN just said it's mostly election day vote in Miami-Dade and early voting is to be counted.

Well this raises a good point - do we even know what composite of the vote this is?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2020, 07:32:14 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 07:30:41 PM
Biden only does a few points better than Hillary in the Indianapolis suburbs.

That might be enough to win states like MI, WI ... but might also not be enough.

there is only 11% of the vote in right now in Indiana
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2020, 07:37:43 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 03, 2020, 07:36:34 PM
John King said Miami-Dade is early in-person votes. So I guess no mail in ballots?

have any counties done mail ballots yet? do we even know? thats the most frustrating part. we dont know whats in and what's out
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #46 on: November 03, 2020, 07:55:42 PM »
What's worrying me is IN and KY, where Biden's margins look pretty damn bad so far. But again, there's only like 17% and 33% in, and we have no idea what composite it is. Like is this just mostly election day in these places?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #47 on: November 03, 2020, 07:56:50 PM »
Quote from: I will now accept my accolades on November 03, 2020, 07:55:08 PM
Biden will lose AZ, TX, and GA because he can't keep up with minorities.

FL minorities =/= AZ, TX, GA minorities
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #48 on: November 03, 2020, 08:00:50 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 03, 2020, 07:59:35 PM
Look at that .... Georgia going for Trump. Who saw that coming?!?!?

Literally 8% in
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #49 on: November 03, 2020, 08:01:22 PM »
Thought KY looked bad for Biden but there's only like 30-40% of the 2016 vote in, so looks like a lot of Election Day there
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