2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

How certain are we Biden has a winning lead in WI?

It seems like absolute best case scenario for Trump is that he cuts the lead by 5000 in Kenosha. (Assuming absentee votes like in person, which it won't.)

What does that leave?

I may be wrong, but isn't the issue that we know Biden got 10K out of Kenosha but they don't know why the SOS isn't updating with it?

[wbrocks67]

Biden down 2K votes in Michigan now.

[wbrocks67]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Focus on the blue wall

Georgia is a pipe dream

Isn't all of the vote out in ATL?

[wbrocks67]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

[wbrocks67]

For the second time in a row, Georgia is like the only state that actually is turning out about how the polls showed.

Why is this???

Maine and New Hampshire actually seem pretty close. Minnesota too. Interesting how polling errors affect IA/OH so much but not Minnesota.

Also, was anyone expecting Biden to win CO by nearly 15? That seems rather surprising too.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know what the deal with AZ is too? How much is out and why are people questioning the call even though Fox and AP already did?

[wbrocks67]

anybody know how much is out in VA? Feels like Biden could hit +10 by the end of it.

[wbrocks67]

Thank you to the morning crew here. You are way more substantial to talk to then the night crowd

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn also brings up a good point - we don't know if the results in PA (or the anticipated ones) include any ballots in a drop box yesterday too, or if those are being counted/processed today.

[wbrocks67]

Trump only up 5K in MI, per DDHQ

[wbrocks67]

Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

If that keeps up, Biden should net another ~70K at least out of Montco

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, speaking of what Dave said, do we have a list of completed counties in PA and their shift from 16?

[wbrocks67]

Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

Good percentage for Biden.

Which is why it's looking more probable that Biden will win PA.  The mail in ballots have shown their power in WI and MI.

Pretty sure he's referring to Montco, Indiana.

no, pretty sure Montco PA

[wbrocks67]

Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323976110510657539

I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

Clearly it is a combination of state-specific issues as well as polls struggling with presidential election years.

Yep. Aside from a few minor misses in 2018, the polls were really good that year. Who knows if it's a presidential year thing or a Trump thing. But even then, there's no way there is "shy" Republican voters for generic R candidates too.

[wbrocks67]

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

[wbrocks67]

Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...

MTE, WTF is that

[wbrocks67]

160K+ mails in left in Allegheny. And they broke 81-19 for Biden so far.

https://twitter.com/mattmp/status/1323960237108416512

[wbrocks67]

Wouldn't it be impossible to make up Trump's gap if there are only 600K mail ballots left?

Think PA is going to end up around 50% - 48% Biden. I think heard 1.4M mail ballots in PA when I went to bed. If that's true and they go 80-20, Biden will net a 840K margin. Trump is ahead by 700K votes right now.

Only 600K now

No, I mean Trumps lead is only 600 right now

[wbrocks67]

Although, polls seem to be good on Biden's favorability. He's at 52% in exits, and that sounds about right based on what we've seen. Biden was popular, but the electorate that came thru did not hate Trump as much as say, the 2018 crowd.

[wbrocks67]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1323978277862735873

[wbrocks67]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

That's the thing - not sure. It doesn't appear if anyone knows if the 1.4 million total *right now* includes anything from the dropboxes, or anything that might show up in the next 3 days...

[wbrocks67]

One thing that needs to change going forward:

The country as a whole needs to get a lot better at counting votes.  I know it's a lot of work, and I also understand there's more to it than I realize, but there should be no instance where states stall out at 80% reported for hours or days, or God forbid weeks.

Yep.

[wbrocks67]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Yeah, it just doesn't seem to add up.

[wbrocks67]

Is there any chance we might get NC?

It seems possible. There are still ~120,000 votes out from primary blue counties (absentee/mail too), and they can keep counting votes that come in until 11/12