2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[wbrocks67]

So Ralston's calling Nevada for Biden:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

Biden winning NV is great and all, but that +4 result would be pretty terrible tho. Though that seems unlikely, given that Dems lead is nearly +4 right now in just the D/R totals, not even including Indies.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, how the hell does he have NC going for Trump? Are people still using the "Well Dems were up more in 2016 in the early vote" thing? Even though we've had like 1.6 million more votes cast in early voting this year than 2016, and Dems *still* have a lead?! Also, not to mention, in 2016, Indies went for Trump, while this year they are more likely to break for Biden?

and just to be clear, I don't think Biden is 100% going to win. But McDonald seeming so sure that these #s are surefire good for... Trump... just seems odd given what we know.

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

[wbrocks67]

NORTH CAROLINA

44K new ballots processed

Dems 1,701,366 (37.4%)
Reps 1,443,822 (31.7%)
Others 1,405,775 (30.8%)
= 4,550,963

Dems with 5.7% / +258K lead. Yesterday it was 5.7% / +257K.

95% of 2016 turnout

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

[wbrocks67]

Right, but you saying 50-25-25 is completely made up.

[wbrocks67]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County, PA is expected to have some mail ballot results by 8:30pm tomorrow night (even before Election Day votes). Most of the SEPA counties are starting to count at 7am tomorrow so it looks like if they do the same way, mail ballot results should start showing up in many places tomorrow night in PA.

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1323282901950173185

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

I really don't see how you can argue Trump's going to win PA at this point. A million ballot lead just seems very tough to overcome no matter how much election day turnout is.

Not to mention, I would be alarmed if I was the GOP that it's the day before and their return rate is only 70%.

[wbrocks67]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

On 2017 VA-GOV election day, I remember seeing a "pundit" (and I use that term SUPER loosely) reporting that "exit polling doesn't look good for Northam."

This was at 11:30am.  But, of course, the post already had a hundred likes and retweets.  

Was it that Ben Tribbett guy who always says things are good for Dems in the morning but then bad in the midday but then great in the afternoon lol

[wbrocks67]

New Mexico at nearly 100% of 2016 turnout and Dems still lead +14 among just D/R totals.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NM.html

[wbrocks67]

I think it's quite probable that on the day voting ends up a broad wash and Biden wins via early voting.

This is quite possible. Especially considering many minority voters are still waiting to participate until election day. Which leads me to believe it will not be this Trump blowout that people are expecting.

[wbrocks67]

O'Malley Dillon is never going to put out real #s and lead to complacency.

Also take PA. Dems 67-33? The current early vote is 66-23-11. That would mean all of the Indies - and I mean *ALL* of them are voting for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323459988321456129

I mean, Bob Casey won Allegheny by 33 in 2018 so that doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility. This is why I'm bullish on Biden winning PA. All he has to do is even just bump Hillary's margin like 3-4 pts minimum in places like Allegheny and the suburbs, and he's got PA pretty much.

[wbrocks67]

Also, FL stuff can be wonky considering you may have a good chunk of Rs voted for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

With another 100K+ votes added in PA, Dems lead grows to about 1.06M in returned ballots as of yesterday.

https://twitter.com/lucyeperk/status/1323651887724376065

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaHuseman/status/1323678662236004354

What every swing state should've been doing.