NC-ABC/WaPo: Biden +1/+2

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

The only swing state averages right now, per 538 that are will be NC after this poll.

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

No, no, of course not. I'm saying that the state polls aren't consistent with a Biden double digit national lead.

I wouldn't say that - we've gotten a lot of high quality ones that are. But people choose not to believe them and instead believe the ones with a lower Biden lead.

[wbrocks67]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

Eh, not really. I would say nearly all of the district polls we've been getting point to an 8-12 pt race instead of a 6 pt one nationally.

[wbrocks67]

Either there has been dramatic tightening or one of these ABC/WaPOST polls are off.

No chance Biden wins by 11 and North Carolina is a jump ball. No chance.

This is more indicative of Biden +6 (as the previous poster suggested)

the ABC/Wapo *state* polls have already proven themselves to be a bit wonky this cycle, so I'm just gonna assume some are going to be off

[wbrocks67]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

[wbrocks67]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.

Dems won by +8.6 in 2018. they are running against Trump. It's not out of the question.

Wanna bet?

Just bc it doesn't happen doesn't mean it's out of the realm of possibility. This is an idiotic conversation.