NC-ABC/WaPo: Biden +1/+2

[VAR]

Biden 49%
Trump 48%

H2H:
Biden 50%
Trump 48%

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/coronavirus-concerns-factor-tied-north-carolina-poll/story?id=73670800

[Podgy the Bear]

Another one!  And the Senate race will go the way of how the presidential race turns out.

[Ljube]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

The only swing state averages right now, per 538 that are will be NC after this poll.

[Ljube]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

What's your estimated national polling average, Ljube?

[Ljube]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

What's your estimated national polling average, Ljube?

Biden+6
Same as Biden campaign.

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

[Rand]

Looks like all swing states are super close.

Probably why they’re swing states

[Ljube]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

No, no, of course not. I'm saying that the state polls aren't consistent with a Biden double digit national lead.

[wbrocks67]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

No, no, of course not. I'm saying that the state polls aren't consistent with a Biden double digit national lead.

I wouldn't say that - we've gotten a lot of high quality ones that are. But people choose not to believe them and instead believe the ones with a lower Biden lead.

[Ljube]

NC will likely be close, but I don't believe NC will vote to the right of the country by 11%. ABC/Wapo polls have been kind of wonky, so a bit of grain of salt.

That is why I don't believe the national polls showing huge Biden lead.

I'm going right from the ABC/Wapo poll. So you're saying you automatically believe this poll rather than their national poll.

No, no, of course not. I'm saying that the state polls aren't consistent with a Biden double digit national lead.

I wouldn't say that - we've gotten a lot of high quality ones that are. But people choose not to believe them and instead believe the ones with a lower Biden lead.

Fair enough. I think we need to be just a little bit more patient and wait for the next batch of state polls. I'm sure that polls published this week, and in particular, those published next week after the final debate will be key to determining where the race stands.

[swf541]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

[Ljube]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

[wbrocks67]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

Eh, not really. I would say nearly all of the district polls we've been getting point to an 8-12 pt race instead of a 6 pt one nationally.

[swf541]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

For that to happen you'd need for other areas to be drifting towards Trump vs 2016 results in the same states

[MillennialModerate]

Either there has been dramatic tightening or one of these ABC/WaPOST polls are off.

No chance Biden wins by 11 and North Carolina is a jump ball. No chance.

This is more indicative of Biden +6 (as the previous poster suggested)

[Ljube]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

For that to happen you'd need for other areas to be drifting towards Trump vs 2016 results in the same states

Yes, the rural areas, by a lot, but not by enough, hence Biden+6. I'm guessing here, could be Biden+7. After all Florida and North Carolina are high turnout states.

[swf541]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

For that to happen you'd need for other areas to be drifting towards Trump vs 2016 results in the same states

Yes, the rural areas, by a lot, but not by enough, hence Biden+6. I'm guessing here, could be Biden+7. After all Florida and North Carolina are high turnout states.

How

[wbrocks67]

Either there has been dramatic tightening or one of these ABC/WaPOST polls are off.

No chance Biden wins by 11 and North Carolina is a jump ball. No chance.

This is more indicative of Biden +6 (as the previous poster suggested)

the ABC/Wapo *state* polls have already proven themselves to be a bit wonky this cycle, so I'm just gonna assume some are going to be off

[Ljube]

We also have plenty of district polls that are reflective of a double digit race

Maybe in those districts.

For that to happen you'd need for other areas to be drifting towards Trump vs 2016 results in the same states

Yes, the rural areas, by a lot, but not by enough, hence Biden+6. I'm guessing here, could be Biden+7. After all Florida and North Carolina are high turnout states.

How

This election is going to be the rural against the urban.
Trump has completely consolidated the rural vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michael Steele endorsing Biden should sew up this race for Biden in AZ, FL and NC. Obama and Biden didn't win FL and NC by huge margins in 2008/12, they won them by 1/2 points

[philly09]

Either there has been dramatic tightening or one of these ABC/WaPOST polls are off.

No chance Biden wins by 11 and North Carolina is a jump ball. No chance.

This is more indicative of Biden +6 (as the previous poster suggested)

the ABC/Wapo *state* polls have already proven themselves to be a bit wonky this cycle, so I'm just gonna assume some are going to be off

Yeah, Langer Polling is ace for national polls, but not for state ones. Remember that weak PA poll in Sept?

[bilaps]

There is zero chance Biden wins nationaly by double digits. If someone beleives that really I think he doesn't understand politics much.