IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll thread: Biden +4, Biden +5 in head-to-head

[wbrocks67]

10/16

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1%

H2H:

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 43% (+1)

Remember that Biden was only +3 with these guys in their last release before they began the tracking poll. However, there has clearly been a trend towards Trump over the last day or two, made clear in the USC tracker and this one.

There were literally three other national polls today with a Biden gaining (AP, KFF, and Navigator).

Also the USC poll usually oscillates between 0.3-0.5 changes like every 4/5 days.

[wbrocks67]

It doesn't really seem to be on the up and up that we've now encountered a 3pt swing in a single day.

[wbrocks67]

Very bouncy isn't it.

Yeah this poll is a hot mess. For a daily tracking poll, there should not be swings this wild.

[wbrocks67]

Biden +2

Biden 48% (-2)
Trump 46% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)

H2H: Biden +3

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 46% (+2)

This is getting ridiculous now. How does a daily tracking poll shift 4% in a day.

[wbrocks67]

IBD wasn’t that good in 2016 but they were spot on in 2018.  Definitely not garbage.

they aren't garbage but this poll is a hot mess. however, they also had Biden +3 just a few weeks ago before zooming to Biden +11 in a matter of like a week.

[wbrocks67]

OK, but let's just for the moment assume that this is a real movement toward Trump.
What could be causing it?

I think it's his resumption of rallies and his dismissal of COVID.

Why would dismissing COVID help him when majority of the American public disapprove of his handling? If anything, that would continue to hurt him.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO. I guess we should not be surprised at this point given they had Trump winning the PV in 2016.