Biden “lid” days = concerning?

[wbrocks67]

Biden did two virtual events yesterday so this is misleading

[wbrocks67]

Any thread on Trumps executive time or regular visits to the Golf Course?

Or his super spreader events that are against basically every guideline from his own White House?

[wbrocks67]

Biden called a lid day again today, before 9AM

http://nypost.com/2020/09/24/joe-biden-campaign-retires-for-the-day-at-9-a-m-as-election-looms/amp/

He said yesterday that he is debate prepping today. This is not uncommon. But pundits and journalists on Twitter are certainly trying to make it an issue b/c they need something on Biden to complain about to balance the scales.

[wbrocks67]

Biden called a lid day again today, before 9AM

http://nypost.com/2020/09/24/joe-biden-campaign-retires-for-the-day-at-9-a-m-as-election-looms/amp/

He said yesterday that he is debate prepping today. This is not uncommon. But pundits and journalists on Twitter are certainly trying to make it an issue b/c they need something on Biden to complain about to balance the scales.

No, it’s an issue because -

“The Democratic ticket’s light schedule stands in stark contrast to the frenzied campaigning of Trump 2020, with the president flying to Charlotte, North Carolina, to deliver remarks on his health care plan before traveling to Jacksonville, Florida, for one of his signature rallies at 7 p.m.”

If it were the other way around, don’t act like you wouldn’t be calling out Trump for taking so many days off

The debates are going to matter a whole lot more than an extra rally or appearance or two

[wbrocks67]

Biden should forget about TX and campaign more in MN and MI.

Michael Moore says they don't even have a field office in MI.

Where does Biden have field offices? I though he never had any field officer anywhere

Well anecdotally I can only talk about Philadelphia, where I am, but his headquarters is here, and it's active because Kamala just visited there last week

[wbrocks67]

FYI - Biden called a lid early yesterday morning.

On Sunday, pool reporters covering the former vice-president at his home in Wilmington, Delaware, were informed of a “lid” – the formal announcement of the end of any public appearances or statements for the day – at 9.16am.

Honestly, good. The pundits have looked like fools this entire cycle. In nearly every single situation, Biden and/or his team are proven right or vindicated in their actions.

[wbrocks67]

It's difficult to imagine how a basement-lite strategy could work so well if Biden is running against any other GOP candidate. Trump's lack of discipline and repeated self blows really turns this contest upside down

Not really. Any other sane candidate would be taking most of the other precautions that Biden is also taking.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorables have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

How do we quantify whether someone is running a good campaign or not?

If we're going by polling and expected election outcomes, then Biden is running one of the best presidential campaigns in recent history.

If we're going by almost any other metric, then it's pretty subjective.

That's a fair point.

But it's not really unprecedented for a candidate to run a substandard campaign, and still win convinceably due to bad state of affairs/the opponent being so unpopular and autodestructive. But if the situation was "normal" (no COVID and thus the political fallout), Biden's inadequacies as a candidate would pose a problem.

The way things stand now, I don't see Biden losing, but I'm still convinced it'll be closer than the polling shows, as I believe Trump's support is still understated. Right now the margin is too big for this to decide the outcome, but in a diffrent climate, it would've been very concerning.

In the end, whether you think his campaign by itself is effective or not so much, it's pretty much indisputable how all the things are playing out in his favor, and I'm talking about the factors out of his control.

Who is to say whether the situation was “normal” or not that Biden would be performing the same? You’re using all your hypotheticals to assume every thing would be more negative for Biden when there’s no proof of that. Again, maybe Biden is actually a GOOD candidate and perfect for this era in time.

You keep making assumptions based off of what you personally want to happen (you clearly don’t like Biden and don’t think highly of him), but none of what you’re saying is bearing out in any actual data.

And then you go on to say again that everything is working out for him in his favor - but it’s not because of him? Uh, I’d argue that things ARE working out in his favor because of a little bit of luck, sure, but mostly, because he and his team ARE doing the right things and are playing this how they should be. Again, there is reason to give Biden and his team a lot of credit for how they’ve played this entire cycle.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorables have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

Of course most people would agree that running a low key campaign (mostly refraining from holding many campaign events in person, and if they're held, keeping them to minimum, so the safety standards are observed) during a pandemic is a responsible and good thing to do. My whole point is that Biden does also give many a perception he's not putting enough efforts, even in "socially distancing campaigning". I never bought into Republican bulls**t talking points about "Biden hiding in his basement" or "Democrats not wanting Biden to face real people because he's declining", but there's some perception problem. Clearly it's not enough to save Trump at this stage, but I'm concerned about Biden coming into office with this hanging over him. And I still think he hasn't been doing enough in "virtual" setting.

Biden is still facing an enthusiasm gap (shown with the GOP actually winning the registration game in key states during last weeks), which fortunately at this stage (barring something massive actually turning everything upside down) is unlikely to put Trump over the top, but under "normal" circumstances, I'd be really worried.

But again, you're using the numbers to push whatever narrative you personally want. There IS no enthusiasm gap, as seen as in the early vote #s. We've gone thru this a million times. And you're also misconstruing the reg numbers too, which have a lot more context to them than what you're presenting.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorable have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

Of course most people would agree that running a low key campaign (mostly refraining from holding many campaign events in person, and if they're held, keeping them to minimum, so the safety standards are observed) during a pandemic is a responsible and good thing to do. My whole point is that Biden does also give many a perception he's not putting enough efforts, even in "socially distancing campaigning". I never bought into Republican bulls**t talking points about "Biden hiding in his basement" or "Democrats not wanting Biden to face real people because he's declining", but there's some perception problem. Clearly it's not enough to save Trump at this stage, but I'm concerned about Biden coming into office with this hanging over him. And I still think he hasn't been doing enough in "virtual" setting.

Biden is still facing an enthusiasm gap (shown with the GOP actually winning the registration game in key states during last weeks), which fortunately at this stage (barring something massive actually turning everything upside down) is unlikely to put Trump over the top, but under "normal" circumstances, I'd be really worried.

But again, you're using the numbers to push whatever narrative you personally want. There IS no enthusiasm gap, as seen as in the early vote #s. We've gone thru this a million times. And you're also misconstruing the reg numbers too, which have a lot more context to them than what you're presenting.

Dude, no need to get angry.

GOP's getting an edge in the registration game is not something I'm making up out of thin air, it's been reported multiple times in the recent days, and, again, I said I don't think it would result in any of said states swinging, given Biden's margins there.

Early vote is something that's been favoring Democrats in most of the recent elections, even lost ones (2004).

I don't want to get personal, unlike you, but I can't help to be under the impression that some here are being a bit blinded with what is arguably a very favorable, long-term run. Frankly one of the reasons I was reluctant to return to this forum is that apparently being even slightly critical of Biden now reacts in knee-jerk reactions from some people.

I wasn't getting personal? But you are doing exactly what you are claiming others are doing. You're taking data and spinning it into your own narrative.

The registration stuff is as simple as this - we have no idea how many of these are new registrants or ancestral Ds (who have voted R) just actually becoming Rs and all the such. Because I can show you the analysis that showed *new registrants* data where Ds have an advantage.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty obvious Biden (not the most inspiring candidate to begin with) is running a substandard campaign. No, I'm not one of those who thinks he should be out more often, doing rallies and so on, because, unlike the other guy, he's acting responsibly in times of pandemic and ought to be commended for this, rather than criticized.

The problem is he's still not doing enough even within the limited framework. I'm also concerned about his message, or lack of thereof, because sometimes you can't resist the impression Biden is running not on a policy message (OK, we here know he has policies, but it's about selling it), but "I'm not an orange man" (which is actually pretty good argument, though still not enough for many).

In the end it appears Biden is the luckiest nominee in the long, long time, having a pleasure of running in a time of crisis, against an irresponsible clown, but I'm a bit concerned about his performance as President after he wins.  

This is incredibly disingenuous, but it's not surprising. People really couldn't admit Biden was actually just *good* at this when he won the primary, and even after everything and nearly every decision made *correctly*, people are still saying "oh he's just getting lucky bc Trump is so bad." I actually feel bad for Joe, that everyone sells him so short. There is no guarantee any other nominee would be doing as well as he is right now - actually, they likely wouldn't be.

Biden has been criticized for his "basement" and "low key" campaign, and yet, HE is the one whose favorable have actually gone UP as the election has gone on. That just doesn't happen. Ever. If people here actually went out into the real world and spoke to real people, most people would probably agree that Joe keeping the lowest key campaign (DURING A PANDEMIC) is a good thing.

Oh, and if you're just gonna say all he's saying is "I'm not Trump" then you're clearly not paying attention. Some of these takes are so lazy.

Of course most people would agree that running a low key campaign (mostly refraining from holding many campaign events in person, and if they're held, keeping them to minimum, so the safety standards are observed) during a pandemic is a responsible and good thing to do. My whole point is that Biden does also give many a perception he's not putting enough efforts, even in "socially distancing campaigning". I never bought into Republican bulls**t talking points about "Biden hiding in his basement" or "Democrats not wanting Biden to face real people because he's declining", but there's some perception problem. Clearly it's not enough to save Trump at this stage, but I'm concerned about Biden coming into office with this hanging over him. And I still think he hasn't been doing enough in "virtual" setting.

Biden is still facing an enthusiasm gap (shown with the GOP actually winning the registration game in key states during last weeks), which fortunately at this stage (barring something massive actually turning everything upside down) is unlikely to put Trump over the top, but under "normal" circumstances, I'd be really worried.

But again, you're using the numbers to push whatever narrative you personally want. There IS no enthusiasm gap, as seen as in the early vote #s. We've gone thru this a million times. And you're also misconstruing the reg numbers too, which have a lot more context to them than what you're presenting.

Dude, no need to get angry.

GOP's getting an edge in the registration game is not something I'm making up out of thin air, it's been reported multiple times in the recent days, and, again, I said I don't think it would result in any of said states swinging, given Biden's margins there.

Early vote is something that's been favoring Democrats in most of the recent elections, even lost ones (2004).

I don't want to get personal, unlike you, but I can't help to be under the impression that some here are being a bit blinded with what is arguably a very favorable, long-term run. Frankly one of the reasons I was reluctant to return to this forum is that apparently being even slightly critical of Biden now reacts in knee-jerk reactions from some people.

I wasn't getting personal? But you are doing exactly what you are claiming others are doing. You're taking data and spinning it into your own narrative.

The registration stuff is as simple as this - we have no idea how many of these are new registrants or ancestral Ds (who have voted R) just actually becoming Rs and all the such. Because I can show you the analysis that showed *new registrants* data where Ds have an advantage.

I'm not trying to "spin" anything, my friend. I could be overcautious, but I think we simply ought to keep some critical perspective.

You may have a point regarding the registration issue, but there were also numerous polls, even in the recent month, showing Trump's advantage in terms of "enthusiasm" for a candidate. I don't adhere to the "primary model" that treats it as a decisive indicator, given the scale of Trump's negative electorate, but I still think Biden personally doesn't generate much enthusiasm and his main strength is Democratic demographic advantage and the fact Trump is just doing such an appalling job, while Trump's biggest strength was always the ability to motivate and energize his supporters "for" him.

And as we've talked about a million times, there is going to be a major gap between asking "are you enthusiastic FOR joe biden" or "are you enthusiastic to vote and/or vote out Donald Trump" in general.