NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[wbrocks67]

It's incomprehendable to me that they STILL AREN'T PUSHING PEOPLE. 12% undecided/other in NV? 13% in NH? Why?

Either way, MN seems right on the nose, Wisconsin is a little lower than what we've seen (Trump +6 sample though...), for all the terrible polling history of NV, that actually looks pretty great for Biden. NH seems off, but there's 13% undecided, so

[wbrocks67]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

[wbrocks67]

Good numbers for Wisconsin in Minnesota.

Not that great for Nevada and New Hampshire.

you do realize that NV polling historically underestimates Dems, right? Biden +4 here is actually great given the past circumstances in this states polling

[wbrocks67]

NYT with some serious hackery in this post. Trump is literally losing all 4 states, and yet all of the quotes and interviewer interactions are in a negative way to Biden.

[wbrocks67]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304740486062759937

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304746758082265088

Right, that's what I'm saying. There is no weighting, so this is a straight Trump +6 self reported sample. Their June poll was a self-reported Trump +1 sample. So them acting surprised that Biden dropped from the previous poll is rich considering the sample is obviously more predisposed to Trump.

The only self-reported vote ID of any of these states that was accurate was the NH poll.

[wbrocks67]

Biden winning voters >65 years 52-40 😬

This is major. If Biden is winning young people by 40% and older people by 12%, that's total game over for Trump

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the NH poll has nearly a 6% MoE, so I wouldn't take it too literallly

[wbrocks67]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%.

At this point, I'm expecting, at least, a 53-46 national PV ala 2008

I've maintained for a while that 2020 is most likely to be a total repeat of 2018, too. 53-45, 2% 3rd party. Especially since the GCB has been steady since 2018 with a D+7/8 win

[wbrocks67]

MINNESOTA:
Males: Biden 44, Trump 43
Females: Biden 56, Trump 38
18-29: Biden 67, Trump 22
30-44: Biden 57, Trump 34
45-64: Trump 52, Biden 40
65+: Biden 52, Trump 40
Whites: Biden 49, Trump 43
Nonwhites: Biden 60, Trump 27
Indies: Biden 52, Trump 33
Trump job approval: 45/52 (-7)
Trump fav: 45/53 (-8)
Biden fav: 52/46 (+6)

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Males: Trump 51, Biden 36
Females: Biden 54, Trump 35
18-44: Biden 47, Trump 37
45-64: Trump 51, Biden 41
65+: Biden 48, Trump 41
Indies: Biden 41, Trump 41
Trump job approval: 45/53 (-8)
Trump fav: 45/53 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)

NEVADA
Males: Trump 48, Biden 41
Females: Biden 53, Trump 37
18-29: Biden 53, Trump 26
30-44: Biden 42, Trump 40
45-64: Trump 54, Biden 40
65+: Biden 57, Trump 37
Whites: Trump 52, Biden 41
Nonwhites: Biden 58, Trump 24
Indies: Biden 41, Trump 36
Trump job approval: 47/48 (-1)
Trump fav: 45/51 (-6)
Biden fav: 52/43 (+9)

WISCONSIN
Males: Trump 46, Biden 44
Females: Biden 52, Trump 39
18-29: Biden 73, Trump 15
30-44: Trump 52, Biden 36
45-64: Trump 50, Biden 42
65+: Biden 53, Trump 42
Whites: Biden 47, Trump 45
Nonwhites: Biden 71, Trump 21
Indies: Biden 49, Trump 35
Trump job approval: 45/52 (-7)
Trump fav: 45/53 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/45 (+6)

[wbrocks67]

I would tend to agree that you shouldn’t weight by self-reported vote. You generally only want to weight on verifiable demographics if possible.  This means party registration where available.  Party ID is better than reported vote, but not ideal.

However, Nate Cohn seems completely obsessed with education weights.  This strikes me as an overcorrection based on a single recent data point.  Not that you shouldn’t do it, but it seems like Nate sometimes uses this as the sole indicator of poll quality.

They have the party ID weight for Wisconsin as R+2. Is that correct?

[wbrocks67]

I look at the high undecideds and narrow Biden margins for everything except Minnesota and it takes me back to October 2016 polls giving me confidence in Clinton. I know 2020 is different, we have several midterm elections to show that undecideds tend to favor the Dem, but it’s a little cause for anxiety.

Yep. Seeing results like 45-42 and 46-42 is a big trigger. Why they couldn't of pushed these people or at least asked which way they were leaning is beyond me...

[wbrocks67]

Also note too that the NYT/Siena poll in NV in 2018 had Heller actually winning by 2. So the fact this has Biden winning by 4 given the polling history of that state...

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn added that they had a terrible voter file in NH, so could be a bad sample. Plus pretty low sample size (in NV too)