Quinnipiac: Biden +8 in PA, +3 in FL

[wbrocks67]

Honestly both of these look about exactly right.

Also: this PA sample has **3x** the amount of respondents as Monmouth.

[wbrocks67]

The last time Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania was in February and they also had the race at Biden +8.

[wbrocks67]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

Not really. Other recent polls of PA:

Morning Consult: +4, +6
Civiqs: +7
GQR: +9
GSG: +8, +10
Franklin and Marshall: +7
Redfield/Wilton: +7

[wbrocks67]

Biden is +10 with seniors in Florida, but losing Hispanics by 2. If that's the case Palm Beach County will be to the left of Miami-Dade.

Q-pac tends to have weird Hispanic samples. They only had Biden up by 20 nationally yesterday and before that it was in the 30s and before that it was only 10.

[wbrocks67]

One common theme among the two Monmouth polls of PA AND this one: Biden is winning seniors by double digits in all 3. If that's the case, then it's game over for Trump in PA.

[wbrocks67]

Crosstabs show trump winning Hispanics in Florida.Interesting

I would also add that Q-Pac appears to have nonwhites weird samples in general.. even in the PA poll, they have Trump at nearly 30% of nonwhites, when he in 2016 and Barletta in 2018 both only won 16% of nonwhites.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden's advantage with elderly voters in FL is accurate then I could see him over-performing his polling average here because I doubt that he's performing that poorly with hispanic voters, even if he does underperform Hillary. That said, if his advantage with older voters is a mirage, then he's in trouble here but that doesn't seem the case since he's been leading consistently for months.

Yeah, I was wondering if Biden's strength among seniors was a mirage at first, but it appears to have held out basically this entire summer. Seeing 3 PA polls with him in double digits with Seniors in PA is pretty striking, and most polls seem to be showing this.

[wbrocks67]

What's up with the Latino vote in Florida? Trump being up 2 is....funny - to say the least.

I think Q-pac is just weird with Hispanic sample. Even with their national poll it has jumped around, as high as +26 and as low as +7. Kind of seesaws back and forth.

9/2: Biden +20
7/15: Biden +10
6/18: Biden +26
5/20: Biden +7
4/8: Biden +20

[wbrocks67]

How do these people get paid for this? Why is Wasserman such a hack?

He thinks its "pretty plausible" that Biden is losing Hispanics in FL, despite the fact that its a complete outlier and Biden was up by 17 in their last Florida poll and Nelson/Gillum won them by nearly 10% in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301630692489654273