MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3

[wbrocks67]

Maybe it should be noted in the OP that this is *literally* a poll done for Jason Lewis's campaign. And it still finds Biden up 3.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully all these R polls of Minnesota will motivate one of the B+ or A tier pollsters (not Emerson) to conduct a poll here.

Yeah, we haven't gotten anything HQ since July's Fox News poll.

Though Morning Consult showing 7/8 seems about right.

[wbrocks67]

If past is prologue, then Biden is in good shape in MN.

https://twitter.com/MLCypher/status/1301517494809759744

[wbrocks67]

August 30 to September 1
501 LV
MOE: +/- 4.38%

Biden - 48% (-2)
Trump - 45% (+3)
Undecided - 4% (-4)

Changes from a May poll which doesn't appear to have been released (not on FiveThirtyEight at least) but it's referenced in the released.

https://www.scribd.com/document/474637138/MN-SEN-General-Election-Key-Findings-Memo-Harper-Polling

Then there probably wasn’t a May poll.

There was, but the sampling period and sample size were not in the release. 538 only adds polls for which the sampling dates are supplied.

No, I just don’t buy that they polled this race in May.

So you think they're actually faking their numbers, or that they polled slightly earlier but had those numbers ready for a private release in May? The former prospect is quite a bold claim to entertain.

It's a campaign's internals though. I don't think they're above fudging the #s.

[wbrocks67]

The Trump campaign has always been obsessed with expanding the electoral map even though it's practically impossible for him to do that. Remember Parscale's New Mexico fixation? MN is just the latest iteration of that delusion. With Biden investing here, unlike Hillary, the state is a comfortable Likely Dem.

Also, just a random conspiratorial thought, would it really be that shocking for Republicans to try and gaslight everyone into thinking that a Clinton state is competitive in order to get Biden to divert funds towards it instead of a swing state? Fun thought, but who knows. Either way I'm glad Biden is advertising here, just to be safe.

I mean, Biden has more than enough $$ so i dont think thatll be an issue