2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

And just like that, Montco starts processing ballots! Only at 11% right now, but way up from the 1% they were at yesterday. Philadelphia also already at an eye-popping 49%.

Not only do Dems currently have a +500K lead right now in PA, but 37% of Dems have already returned their ballot, while only 23% of Reps have.

Yeah, the big thing that would concern me if I were the Trump campaign is the fact that Dems seem to be holding their own throughout the state which is going to make it hard for Trump to overcome the impending bloodbath in the Philly suburbs.  This election might teach Republicans that you can't lose big cities by massive margins AND lose heavily populated suburbs by big margins too.  The math doesn't generally work.

Yeah, the fact that Dems have a 500K+ lead right now with most of the Philly suburbs out should be pretty concerning for them. Not to mention, Reps return rate is absolutely sluggish.

[wbrocks67]

Florida In-Person EV as of 2:40 PM

Rep 85,744
Dem 83,311
NPA/Others 25,373

Total 200,249

50/67 counties reporting

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Nothing yet from Miami-Dade.

Is there a reason Miami-Dade has been slow in general reporting the past few weeks? Not just today but also with their mail in ballots?

[wbrocks67]

Isn't Miami Date out still? So it's not that big of a deal if Dems/Reps are = right now

[wbrocks67]

The GOP usually wins the in person early vote, don't they? So how is this bad news for Dems? Not to mention, if GOP is only breaking even on in-person whens Dems have already racked up a 500K lead in Mail ballots...

[wbrocks67]

Fresh Florida EV update:
Democrats: 131,524 (41.87%)
Republicans: 134,389 (42.78%)
NPAs: 44,608 (14.20%)
Others: 3,591 (1.14%)

giving up on ever seeing Miami Dade report at this point

[wbrocks67]

Given the huge Dem lead in mail in ballots in NC, you'd think Reps would be able to close the gap in In-Person early votes, but it still appears that Dems are still leading those considerably as well.

[wbrocks67]

TX already at 51% of 2016 vote.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

Barely. Dems still gained ~8,000 or so on the day due to mail ballots. They lost the early vote by 365 or so votes out of over 364,000 votes cast.

Given the Dems major lead among mail ins, shouldn't Reps be doing considerably better then among in person voters?

[wbrocks67]

3.023 million votes cast in FL now. 364K early in person votes, Dem and GOP virtually tied. Dems have a 16-pt lead combined.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1318548087409868806

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania is doing the same thing as Wisconsin. Or at least the Southeastern counties + Philly are. Continuously counting for 24 hours a day until they finish.

[wbrocks67]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

The Pennsylvania #s are insane - We've hit 1.03 million ballots and Democrats still account for a whopping 73% of them.

Not just that - but Dems have a 42% return rate right now. Reps are lagging at 27%.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318609760988659714
I hope Dems can close the gap a bit as VBM is progressing along nicely

I mean, given Dems ginormous mail ballot lead, even them just keeping it relatively close in in person early vote seems like a win at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Over 50,000 votes already today in Broward County. Big day for absentee returns across Florida as ballots dropped in drop boxes at Early Voting Centers are counted.

This would appear good for Dems, no?

[wbrocks67]

Georgia's turnout is insane as much as TX's is.

[wbrocks67]

Also fascinating - the black return rate (82%) is actually higher than the white return rate (75%) in SC

Not to mention, the fact that both are already at 3/4+

[wbrocks67]

Wow, AZ is looking quite great for Dems so far.

[wbrocks67]

I'm still trying to to figure out how Dems increasing their VBM lead and Reps only being slightly above them in in-person is supposed to be good for Reps in FL? The Dems have a f**king 500K lead among VBM, of course their likely not going to win many days in in-person.

[wbrocks67]

North Carolina is also impressive too - Dems still able to increase their overall raw total lead bc of such a strong VBM lead.

[wbrocks67]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

[wbrocks67]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

I don't know the wording. If they have a very high standard for what constitutes a likely voter, treat it with skepticism.

I think I know what you're trying to say, and it's why I think TX polls will be decently off this year. They won't be able to capture all of these voters who are coming out, many of whom may have been considered 'low propensity' in the past

[wbrocks67]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Is this the new GOP talking point? "VBM votes don't matter"?

[wbrocks67]

Surprised no one is talking about Nebraska, where 310K people have already voted, and a plurality is still Democrats. They also have a much higher return rate among mail-ins than Reps do - 70% vs 57%

[wbrocks67]

The return rates are astonishing in Iowa. Dems are at nearly 80% with 13 days to go.

[wbrocks67]

PA update: 1.18 million have now voted. Dems still account for 72% of returns (847K) versus 227k (19%) for Republicans.

Dem return rate at 46.4%, Rep return rate still lagging at 31.9%.