2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for returning their ballots in slow fashion?

[wbrocks67]

Vote dump from PA and MI. 

In PA, Dems have a 300k to 56k ballot lead.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Lots of votes in from Philly.

What's most stark is the return rate. Dems have already returned 18%. Reps only 9%.

[wbrocks67]

Now do you see why Georgia won’t flip?

How so? No one is leaving the line.

[wbrocks67]

The insane new # of registrants in TX just goes to show that I don't think pollsters really know who's showing up this year, tbh.

[wbrocks67]

I'm in line for early voting in McKinney and it's an hour long wait. This is insane.

you can vote by mail, vote on election day or wait a few days... LOL

I mean, I understand the concept of your answer, but two things can happen at once. You could wait till another day to vote, sure, or vote a different way... but at the same time, there's no reason why there isn't more sites in MANY states right now to vote. One drop box in a whole county is insane. Just like in GA, there should've been more remote sites to early vote at.

[wbrocks67]

NJ and PA and a number of other states posted updates today.  Democrats are energized everywhere.  I think people are too focused on 2016 to realize that this might be an absolute bloodbath for Republicans this year. 

This is a very underrated factor. It is quite possible that the polls are missing the energy on the Dem site. What we're seeing is insane in turns of turnout.

[wbrocks67]

Florida now has a 400K+ Dem lead

[wbrocks67]

Minnesota stopped updating votes, why?

VT with 35% early voting turnout, do they like early voting there or is something else happening?

PA, almost no reports from Philly or Scranton, can’t see why

?? There's been updates in Philly - they're up to 33-34% returned already.

[wbrocks67]

Those TX #s, especially out of Harris, seem very good for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I think MN only updates once a week IIRC

[wbrocks67]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

Yep, it's like her in SE PA - Philly and Chester are counting their ballots at a brisker place, but Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks counties have like nothing in yet.

[wbrocks67]

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

[wbrocks67]

It's really staggering that 2.5 million people have *already* voted in TX.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania Dems certainly are energized:

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1317105141292609537

[wbrocks67]

Given that 3.4 million voters have already voted in TX with 17 days to go, it would appear likely that A) pollsters are probably going to be off this year in TX and B) Biden has a true 50/50 shot at taking the state.

Given TX and GA's absolutely monstrous voting so far, I really hope they send some more $$ to both places. Judging by these #s, he absolutely has a shot in both

[wbrocks67]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I agree with this take. Not to mention, I think a lot of those lower propensity voters may be turned off by the GOP voter suppression tactics and are now making sure they go out and vote b/c people are trying to take their vote away.

[wbrocks67]

Those FL #s continue to be striking.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are already at 10%+ turnout in NV while Reps are only at 5%. Who in this thread was trying to spin this as good for Republicans right now?

[wbrocks67]

How is TargetSmart even modeling it when there is no party registration in TX's #s to begin with? I don't see how you could possibly even model that with no real prior info.

[wbrocks67]

Here's your weekly or daily reminder that all those high early D numbers don't mean anything if the Trump people vote on election day in hordes ...

(Besides, it is not even guaranteed that the early vote is so extremely pro-D as people believe. The Indys voting early might be less pro-Biden for example than what polls say ...)

this is true, but if a place like FL still has like a 500K+ Dem lead going into election day, that is going to be VERY hard for the GOP to over come, even with a ton of Reps voting on election day. There's only so much they can overcome

[wbrocks67]

Cotto/Gottfried
@CottoGottfried
·
10h
In North Carolina, in-person early voting returns have eclipsed VBM ones by four points. Dems lead GOPers by a 23-point margin, with 1,243,340 ballots received. GOPers are slowly closing the gap, but this is pathetic all the same. GOPers will need an epic Election Day turnout.

"slowly closing the gap" is doing a lot of work here. They are literally down 23%.

[wbrocks67]

lol no point exists in speculating on early voting.

Democrats have a lead obviously. But that's because they are gonna vote early and Republicans WILL vote more on the DAY OF (less fear of COVID).

None of this means anything. See 2016 and literally every election before that.

A) there are more people voting early/mail
B) if these margins keep up, Reps are going to have to turn out in record numbers on election day to keep up. and that's not assured.

[wbrocks67]

So Florida Dems are winning both the mail & early vote #s. Reps better hope there is record election day turnout then...

[wbrocks67]

So, state by state, what is the situation?

Not a ton of updates today.  Florida updates on twitter. 

Michigan and Wisconsin updates here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Pennsylvania is still very far behind on reporting.  Still almost NOTHING in from Philly suburbs!

Yeah, it's super odd that Chester is doing good reporting, but Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware are reporting nothing still. Montco's website says they have already gotten atleast 63K ballots back.

[wbrocks67]

BIG NEW CHUNK OF VOTES IN FROM PA:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Democrats           662,189   
Republicans   160,938   

And just like that, Montco starts processing ballots! Only at 11% right now, but way up from the 1% they were at yesterday. Philadelphia also already at an eye-popping 49%.

Not only do Dems currently have a +500K lead right now in PA, but 37% of Dems have already returned their ballot, while only 23% of Reps have.