2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

The PA #s continue to be absolutely insane.

Dems 1,023,402 (70.6%)
Reps 293,318 (20.2%)
Other 132,680 (9.2%)
= 1,449,400

Dem lead now +730K (was +684K yesterday)

https://twitter.com/aabramson/status/1319650608916344832

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

As of last night/this morning (with no numbers from today):

FLORIDA
Dems 2,110,366 (44.2%)
Reps 1,682,849 (35.3%)
Other 978,741 (20.5%)
Total 4,771,956

Dems lead is 428K, or 8.9%.

yep but now it's 418k

If you're including this morning's data, I wouldn't, since there's no point in compiling tallies until each day is over

[wbrocks67]

Nothing really to add about today's NV update. Sounds like mail ballot processing is slow or delayed, so not really an apples to apples comparison with the Early Vote in person update

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319652204861476864

[wbrocks67]

The only number that really matters right now.

Dem turnout in Florida so far: 42% of registered voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe the big surge in early voting means fewer people who vote on Election Day? Maybe it is the weekend effect? Maybe this doesn’t take into account  “Biden Republicans”?

This seems like the sensible conclusion.

Yes, this too. It's very possible that a lot of usual election day GOPers are now voting early in person.

[wbrocks67]

The only number that really matters right now.

Dem turnout in Florida so far: 42% of registered voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

Hillary had a 250k lead going in to E-Day.

Also, given the NPAs are going for Biden most likely, Dems just need to keep pace with GOP at the end  of it. People are being ridiculous freaking out because the lead goes from like 420 to 390, when any edge that the Dems have is good.

  The 96k lead that Democrats had by Party ID (combo of mail-in, early voting) was actually a real vote lead of around 250,000 in 2016. We have no idea how much Joe Biden is up by.

And we have no idea who is voting on Election Day. GOP could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote.

[wbrocks67]

The Clark firewall is now D+82,000

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319769428024725504