Morning Consult: AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI: Biden +10, +10, +2, +3, +10, +7, +2...

[wbrocks67]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Maybe you should average them out since we've gotten quite a few in recent days.

[wbrocks67]

Although I'm loving that Georgia number, I'm most surprised that the only state not to show any movement was Wisconsin.

If this is a harbinger of polls to come, I fail to see how Trump makes up ground at this point.

VAR must've missed it, but it did show movement... it was 6% a few weeks back as well as 6% right before the convention. So movement towards Biden, interestingly enough

[wbrocks67]

Small Biden leads in Georgia are one thing, but Biden at 49% in Georgia is something else entirely. If that continues then it'd arguably be the most ominous sign imaginable for Trump's campaign and the Republican national electoral strategy. There is absolutely no plausible path to victory for Trump in the event that Biden carries Georgia.

Really hoping Biden campaign adds a little more $$ before October in GA.

[wbrocks67]

Also: this is the millionth poll we've gotten that shows TX a dead heat, btw.

Also, all the hand-wringing about Minnesota, where it was Biden+8 before and Biden+7 now. Lines up closely with the last reputable poll (PPP Biden +10) we got.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona being Biden+10 is probably just as wrong as them having Trump+2 in their last sample, so Biden +5 sounds about right (right in the middle)

[wbrocks67]

Why is he doing so much better than expected in Georgia and Arizona but not as good as expected in Pennsylvania?

Could just be the sample. AZ is probably too dem-friendly so PA might be a little too R-friendly