We keep seeing these polls of Texas congressional districts with massive swings toward Biden. Could polls of the state as a whole be underpolling Ds? We may be in for a surprise in November.
1. They are internals, so worth taking with a grain of salt. (Even if they aren't intended to pump up Biden's numbers, they are intended to pump up the numbers of the Democratic candidate they were conducted for.)
2. They are for suburban districts where Biden would need to outperform a uniform swing if he were going to win Texas. Rural state House districts should see much less, if any, swing towards Biden.
These have Biden outrunning Beto by *12 points*. Even if you account for an internal and not a universal swing across the board, it would still mean Biden winning TX overall.
