Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3

[wbrocks67]

Essentially tied with their "high" and "low" turnout models

In the election for U.S. Senate, Republican incumbent Joni Ernst (48%) and Democratic
challenger Theresa Greenfield (45%) are locked in a tight battle. Libertarian Rick Stewart earns 2%,
independent Suzanne Herzog has 1%, and another 3% are undecided. The race remains knotted up when looking at likely voters as well, using either a high turnout (48% Ernst and 47% Greenfield) or low turnout (48% Ernst and 47% Greenfield) scenario.

[wbrocks67]

Outlier until proven otherwise

Yeah, I just don't buy that Ernst is winning this. I mean, even Selzer had her up when things weren't even as bad as they are now for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Outlier until proven otherwise

Yeah, I just don't buy that Ernst is winning this. I mean, even Selzer had her up when things weren't even as bad as they are now for Trump.

I think Ernst might even outperform her 2014 margin. Polling in Iowa greatly underestimates the GOP.

There's no empirical evidence though that would suggest that this race is anything but a tossup.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.