GA-Monmouth: Tied (user search)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  GA-Monmouth: Tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-Monmouth: Tied  (Read 2269 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: July 29, 2020, 11:00:53 AM »
Quote from: Devils30 on July 29, 2020, 10:42:40 AM
Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

Yeah, I don't buy this one. I'll wait for other polls. There's a lot of warning signs here for me that it's too GOP-friendly:

Trump's favorable being in the positives
"likely voter" high turn out model favoring Trump, despite what we saw in the primary
Kemp's favorable being nearly +10
Loeffler leading the special
Perdue being 6 above Ossoff

nearly none of these things have borne out in any other recent GA polls so I'll take it with a grain of salt
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 23,085
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2020, 11:02:46 AM »
Quote from: FlyoverCoast on July 29, 2020, 10:51:02 AM
Quote from: Devils30 on July 29, 2020, 10:42:40 AM
Pretty GOP friendly sample too if you ask me.

For Reference

2016 Exit Polls:

36% Republican
30% Independent
34% Democrat

Monmouth Sample after weighting (change from 2016)
38% Republican (+2)
33% Independent (+3)
28% Democrat (-6)

Oh god. That's even worse than I thought.

I was wondering how they have it tied too when Biden is winning 96% of Ds (more Rs than Trump), 7% of Rs (more Ds than Trump), and 20%+ on Indies. That doesn't add up.
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