CBS/YouGov 50 state model megathread

[wbrocks67]

Florida lines up with everything that we've been seeing lately, which is a surprising >5 lead for Biden among numerous polls now.

Texas also lines up with numerous polls and the average being about dead even.

Arizona, however, seems skewed to the right. And as I've said before, YouGov is really bad at capturing Independent samples. They almost always skew right, not sure why. Even in their national polls, they barely have Biden leading, if ever.

In their Arizona poll, Trump is leading by *9* points among Independents, which is likely making this rosier for him. Sinema won indies by 3% in 2018, and Trump only won by 3 in 2016.

So given that Trump is only *tied* when Indies in this poll are really good for him means this poll is actually pretty rough for him, and if say, Trump was only up by 3, or Biden was leading by 3 like Sinema, we'd likely see a result closer to the other AZ polls we've seen (+3-5)

[wbrocks67]

This feels a little uneven.

Does anyone know whether CBS/YouGov have polled those states recently?

Are these numbers in line with previous findings, or does this seem to be a batch of outliers?

(While Arizona could vote to the right of Florida, six points feels like a bit of a stretch, given the numbers in recent years)

I believe YouGov had Texas at Trump +4 recently, so this would be a shift towards Biden. I don't think they've polled AZ or FL recently

[wbrocks67]

We are still about two months out from a LV screen being useful.

Yeah, not sure why they didn't release RV as well.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know, these three results don't add up. I'm pointing out the obvious here, but unless we've been wrong all this time about Arizona, I don't see how it is tied if Trump is only leading by one in Texas and if Biden is leading by a (relatively) whopping six points in Florida.

Indies - YouGov's sample is horrific in the AZ poll. It has Trump leading by 9. He only won by 3 in 2016 (and Simena won by 3 in 2018)

[wbrocks67]

I've been sounding the alarm on peeps being too bullish on AZ, it's polarized and Sinema's performance was not as impressive as some make it out to be. Nevertheless, I still expect it to go to Biden by around the same margin as Sinema won and there's no way Biden is only doing 1 point better in AZ than in TX.

> Sinema turns seat blue for first time in decades
> Sinema performance "not as impressive as some make it out to be"

This is literally one poll that has a bit of a flawed composite, so I wouldn't just take it at face value when we've had more polls than not showing Biden with a considerably higher lead in AZ than this.

[wbrocks67]

I've been sounding the alarm on peeps being too bullish on AZ, it's polarized and Sinema's performance was not as impressive as some make it out to be. Nevertheless, I still expect it to go to Biden by around the same margin as Sinema won and there's no way Biden is only doing 1 point better in AZ than in TX.

> Sinema turns seat blue for first time in decades
> Sinema performance "not as impressive as some make it out to be"

This is literally one poll that has a bit of a flawed composite, so I wouldn't just take it at face value when we've had more polls than not showing Biden with a considerably higher lead in AZ than this.

I suppose I should have added "imo". I personally was not as impressed by it as others. Considering the trends in suburbs, college educated whites and the sunbelt in general, along with the 2018 environment, I would have expected a candidate tailor-made to said demographics like Sinema to defeat a poor candidate like McSally by more than 2 points and be able to capture a majority of the vote. I never meant to say that a Dem flipping an AZ seat wasn't impressive or a hopeful sign for 2020, only that I don't think the margin was impressive enough to assume the race leans to Biden.

IDK, McSally wasn't as bad of a candidate back in 2018 as she is now. And AZ moving nearly 6% to the left just from 2016 to 2018 is pretty impressive.

[wbrocks67]

I just don’t buy any of these states trending right in the current environment. Trump gained 380K votes over Romney in Florida and Hillary gained 340K over Obama. Considering the high population areas that continue to swing left, and with so many rural areas unlikely to swing even further right to 80-90% Trump, it’s very difficult for Trump to overcome any loss of support on his part.

Yeah, in an environment where Texas is tied and Florida is Biden +6, AZ being tied makes no sense.

[wbrocks67]

They have the entire country up there - each state.

The top of the page says: "Where races currently stand, based on CBS News polling and analysis. Learn more."

[wbrocks67]

In addition to the specific polls we conduct in key states in a given week, the Battleground Tracker map includes our best estimates and presidential race ratings in every state. This includes states we've polled extensively and states where we've surveyed few voters but have lots of other data.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker-5-things-to-know/

[wbrocks67]

Here’s where they have some of them:

Alaska: Trump 51, Biden 46
Arizona: Trump 46, Biden 46
Colorado: Biden 55, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 48, Trump 42
Georgia: Biden 50, Trump 48
Iowa: Trump 50, Biden 48
Maine: Biden 53, Trump 45
Michigan: Biden 53, Trump 46
Minnesota: Biden 54, Trump 44
Nevada: Biden 54, Trump 44
New Hampshire: Biden 53, Trump 45
North Carolina: Biden 51, Trump 48
Ohio: Trump 50, Biden 49
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 47
South Carolina: Trump 53, Biden 45
Texas: Trump 46, Biden 45
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 43
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 47

[wbrocks67]

Here’s where they have some of them:

Alaska: Trump 51, Biden 46
Arizona: Trump 46, Biden 46
Colorado: Biden 55, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 48, Trump 42
Georgia: Biden 50, Trump 48
Iowa: Trump 50, Biden 48
Maine: Biden 53, Trump 45
Michigan: Biden 53, Trump 46
Minnesota: Biden 54, Trump 44
Nevada: Biden 54, Trump 44
New Hampshire: Biden 53, Trump 45
North Carolina: Biden 51, Trump 48
Ohio: Trump 50, Biden 49
Pennsylvania: Biden 52, Trump 47
South Carolina: Trump 53, Biden 45
Texas: Trump 46, Biden 45
Virginia: Biden 55, Trump 43
Wisconsin: Biden 52, Trump 47

[wbrocks67]

Their TX, AZ, and FL ones should be taken with a grain of salt right now bc it looks like they just used their recent poll as the top line and nothing else