AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14 (user search)
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  AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AL (Auburn University) - Trump +14  (Read 1898 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: July 10, 2020, 02:59:10 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 23,261


« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2020, 03:12:20 PM »

I know polls in deep red states tend to underestimate Republicans, but this would be a pretty devastating swing away from Trump.

They underestimate margins, but usually the Democratic numbers themselves aren't inflated. A Democrat cracking 40% in AL would be really something, not sure it's possible.

I mean, Maddox cracked 40% in 2018

But a presidential candidate hasn't in 20 years.

when will people get it through their head that 2020 is not a typical presidential election year? i'm not specifically attacking you, but this whole "this state hasn't had a democratic senator in 70 years", "this state hasn't given Dems 40% in 20 years". Those really have no bearing this year. Crazier things have happened. Just because it hasn't happened in decades doesn't mean it can't happen this year. And much like the KS example, this is the same with AL - people keep ignoring 2018 happened, despite the fact that this election is looking awfully like 2018 on numerous levels.
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