IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[wbrocks67]

It would appear Ernst has a real election on her hands.

https://twitter.com/libmeyer/status/1263191008847765509

[wbrocks67]

Confirmation that Ernst is losing right now. Also, SIX debates? Is she on crack?

https://twitter.com/joniernst/status/1275041290120572929

[wbrocks67]

Confirmation that Ernst is losing right now. Also, SIX debates? Is she on crack?

https://twitter.com/joniernst/status/1275041290120572929

She did pretty well with the debates in 2014, but her real goal will probably be fishing for ad content in each debate

Its a well documented phenomenon that the candidate who's behind or is expected to have a tough race asks for more and more debates. Not many people really watch local debates, besides those that have already established partisan loyalties. Instead, the point of multiple debates is to seek a gotcha moment that can then make the main local news networks which people actually watch. A good recent example is Ayotte and her mishandling of the Trump issue in 2016.

What happened with Ayotte? (I only joined in 2017)

IIRC, she publicly called out Trump for the Access Hollywood tape, but then ran and supported him like 2 weeks later right before the election.

She also, at a debate, said Trump was a role model, after calling him out for the AH tape
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-Y6NKxHd6Y

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1279773169281372166?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[wbrocks67]

Greenfield apparently already raised $100K after that interviewed aired

[wbrocks67]

Lean R my ass!

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1280854607032352769

[wbrocks67]

Has Ernst reported her 2Q total yet?

[wbrocks67]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

Ernst is getting desperate

[wbrocks67]

Theresa Greenfield scrubbed job experience from her campaign website following attacks from the GOP about her business record.

“Why is Greenfield hiding from her record?” the Ernst campaign asks in a digital ad launching Monday.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/iowa/ernst-campaign-asks-why-greenfield-scrubbed-job-experience-from-website/article_04253c8e-14d8-5078-a370-c59c71196034.html

Ernst is getting desperate

Why do you have this tendency to view everything as a positive for the Democrats?

I could say the same thing about you in reverse?

And I'm not, but Ernst's actions recently are just kind of scraping the bottom of the barrel of whatever they can find, even if it's something that doesn't really matter, to make it out to be a "scandal" for Greenfield when she really doesn't have any

[wbrocks67]

Joni is just getting sad at this point

https://twitter.com/SamNewton/status/1289183990285393924

[wbrocks67]

Genius by Greenfield.

https://twitter.com/GreenfieldIowa/status/1289279755544662018

[wbrocks67]

Joni is just getting sad at this point

https://twitter.com/SamNewton/status/1289183990285393924

Remember when this race was Safe R, and Ernst was going to win by double digits? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

It would have been, had Biden not been in landslide territory nationally. Even then Trump and Ernst will probably still win narrowly, even as Biden is probably winning by double digits. It would have been Safe R had this not been a wave election.

This really does a lot to mask the fact that Joni just might have proven herself this campaign to be a... not great candidate either.

[wbrocks67]

You mean to say the "my job experience is castrating pigs" lady isn’t such a great candidate after all?

The only reason she’s even a senator now is because Barley Bales was somehow even worse, and 2014 was... 2014.

The only reason she might narrowly lose now is because of a massive blue wave. Iowa's still a pretty red state, and getting redder.

2018 would disagree with that

[wbrocks67]

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think the appeal of mainstream, "average person" candidates who aren't actively seeking a national profile is being heavily underrated this cycle, especially after a midterm cycle and anticlimactic Presidential primary that were both largely driven by viral moments and personal celebrity.

True, I think this is why you see candidates like Cal Cunningham and Greenfield doing well. Even people like Gideon and Kelly, who have a bit of a higher profile, still come off with that 'everyday' vibe as well.

[wbrocks67]

OMG theres audio too. How could Ernst possibly think that saying her opponent was "taking selfies with her dog Ringo" was somehow an attack and not endearing to almost everyone?

https://twitter.com/chevytothe_levy/status/1289228636797755392

[wbrocks67]

Putting aside the Ringo scandal, the Atlas narrative that Joni Ernst is running an awful campaign is pretty weak. She's probably tied or losing if the election were held tomorrow, but that's just a reflection of the terrible environment for GOPers, not her specific weaknesses. Greenfield, however, has run a good campaign in the vein of Cal Cunningham; staying in her basement, raising boatloads of cash and coasting on the national environment, with almost no negative media exposure.

I would just say that Ernst is making a lot of unforced errors and blunders. Almost every time she speaks, it seems like she says something just.... stupid.

[wbrocks67]

Ernst is her own worst enemy at this point

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1290372362572103682

[wbrocks67]

The new poll came out today from Monmouth with Ernst +3. Given that Republicans tend to outperform polling in Iowa, I'd call this race Likely R. Ernst wins by around her 2014 margin.

This analysis doesn't make sense for multiple reasons, but also that you're taking the word of one poll, instead of going off the average, which still has a minuscule Greenfield lead. There's literally no evidence pointing to Ernst winning by her 2014 margin.

[wbrocks67]

Ernst is truly grasping at straws now.

[wbrocks67]

Ernst is truly grasping at straws now.

She's still going to win, though, with the Presidential race tightening. It's sickening.

Who says it's tightening?

[wbrocks67]

Ernst continues to prove that 2014 was truly a one-off. She's just so bad

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1298804709374001153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[wbrocks67]

Is Joni trying to battle McSally on who can be worse?

"Ernst Suggests Iowa Doctors Falsifying COVID Cases For Money"
https://iowastartingline.com/2020/09/01/ernst-suggests-iowa-doctors-falsifying-covid-cases-for-money2/

[wbrocks67]

Another week, another Joni Ernst blunder

https://twitter.com/brikeilarcnn/status/1302289508906479619

[wbrocks67]

All signs point to Ernst being in more danger than Trump this year and this might just be a Senate tipping point.

I don’t see how this race is a tipping point -- if she loses, the Democrats have already flipped the Senate. Wbrocks constantly searching Twitter/Google/etc. for random stories about Ernst which few people have heard about and/or which will only sway a handful of voters and/or which only people who were never going to vote for Ernst in the first place care about isn’t going to change this.

The story might seem random on a national level but it actually made waves locally, which is the reason why Ernst was forced to take back her wild accusations.

I really love when people feel the need to tell other people what stories aren't and are gong to matter. Pretty sure every blunder that I've posted in here has made waves locally in Iowa - especially this one, like you said, b/c she had to take it back b/c it made waves locally.

It would not surprise me if Ernst underperformed Trump.

[wbrocks67]

See, this is what Greenfield has going for her. She's clearly a lot more personable and relatable than Joni "Karen" Ernst

https://twitter.com/GreenfieldIowa/status/1310365353709629440