Is Venezuela heading to civil war?

[Big Abraham]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

[Big Abraham]

Maybe, but if one does occur, it will be the the result of a United States-directed regime operation, with the blood on Trump's hands in particular

why do you think Trump would replace Maduro with another socialist?  Do you think Trump is competent enough to pull something like that off?  Is this like how the left from a decade ago convinced themselves that Dubya was both a total moron and an evil genius, depending on what they were blaming him for at the time?

Most U.S. regime change operations tend to go poorly; it's not just that I think Trump is incompetent. But that's not even the point. The point is the logic behind using American force to depose a foreign leader, and the U.S. military is now massing at the Venezuelan border. And obviously they seek to replace Maduro, and see his opposition (which is not 'socialist') as the most likely alternative, hence why Trump has already declared Guaidó as the legitimate President of Venezuela

[Big Abraham]

Most U.S. regime change operations tend to go poorly;

indeed

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wait, what?

The U.S. delegation is travelling by military aircraft to the Colombian border, being led by Elliott Abrams of all people, one of the most consummate neoconservatives who ever lived.

[Big Abraham]

so, not "massing" then

mass /mas/
verb, gerund or present participle: massing
assemble or cause to assemble into a mass or as one body.

So yeah, that's exactly what they're doing

Even putting that aside, it is indisputable that military forces are being led by Abrams to the Venezuelan border. Do you think this is for any other reason other than to hasten the deposition of the Venezuelan leadership?

[Big Abraham]

Yep, and a handful of transport planes bringing humanitarian aid is not that.

To a country whose government they seek to topple. Led by one of the most notorious war criminals in American history. Okay, buddy

what "military forces"?  I suppose you might be right and that is about to happen, but that memo doesn't say anything close to what you seem to think it says.

You don't think military aircraft qualifies being part of "military forces"?

[Big Abraham]

You really think there are US Military transport planes, full of things labeled "humanitarian supplies", but are really full of tanks, bazookas and machine guns heading towards Venezuela to "trick" them like bad guys do in movies?  Do you think we live in a cartoon?

No, that'd be obviously naive and stupid. I never claimed they were going to invade; in fact, an all-out invasion is quite unlikely and isn't yet necessary for American interests. Take Libya for instance, no full ground invasion there, and yet the Gaddafi government was toppled all the same. It's quite easy for the military to make this excursion to the border on the pretext of humanitarian aid when in reality this is, like many other things, bringing American red-lines to the borders of Maduro's regime. You don't think Venezuela will see this as a provocation?

[Big Abraham]

Talking about the US military 'massing' at the border of a country makes it sound like they are preparing a large invasion force. A blowhard criminal-turned-"special representative" and his attaché hardly counts as such. That is blowing it out of proportion. If they have a few divisions of US troops organizing at the border... sure, but is that what is happening?

You can criticize this trip without that kind of wording.

The wording is accurate. Hell, it's the same one used by pro-American media sources, including this article by NPR and this one by the Washington Examiner.

American military equipment and foreign aid is strategically being massed there and obviously it is intended as a provocation to Maduro's government

[Big Abraham]

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vs

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Even the article title itself explicitly says massing 'aid.'

You're undermining your own argument by stubbornly sticking to hyperbole that flies in the face of how people generally accept the term "[country] military massing at the [country] border." The US military is not massing an invasion forces at the border of Venezuela. Now trying to force regime change through other measures... sure. But stop acting like the US is a hair away from a full-scale invasion of Venezuela just because it sent Elliot Abrams down there.

Uh yeah, I never denied that aid was being sent there. However, in the article, even U.S. officials acknowledge that positioning the aid on the border is designed to be a provocation. And we know from the Defense Department's memo that the military is employed in massing aid along the border, which is also made clear from the Examiner article, including potential aircraft carriers, which means that a significant naval and marine presence is now operating in proximity to Colombia and Venezuela and could very well lead to war.

I don't even think a full-scale invasion will happen anyway. It didn't in Libya, nor in Syria, even though we had (and continue to have) a military presence in those two nations. What I do think is that this blatant act of provocation on the part of Abrams and the Trump administration is intended to be the prelude to a military intervention in the country.

[Big Abraham]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

[Big Abraham]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

You refuse to deal with the substance of my argument, and instead slander me on the basis of a supposed link with Russia. Can't you leave that to the Democrats?

[Big Abraham]

I didn't say you denied aid was being sent, I was just pointing out that the article talked specifically about massing 'aid' and not the military.

If you want to stick to that term, go ahead, but it's silly and not helpful to your argument.

I'm using the term the American state media is using, who usually tend to have a much rosier view of American foreign policy than I do. And even if I were to specifically refrain from using the word 'massing', it doesn't change the substance of my argument.

Massing troops =/= massing aid, both in meaning and implication- this is a substantive difference, not merely semantics.

They are in fact massing both. The semantics argument was only whether or not I should have used the word "massing". What's not up for debate is whether or not Americans military forces are being sent to the Venezuelan border. They are.

[Big Abraham]

So you're, again, saying that the US military is massing military gear on their border?  Where is there evidence?

FYI, you are not very good at this.

The U.S. military increasing reconnaissance flights off the coast of Venezuela

Military personnel using C-17 planes to transport aid

None of this should really come off as a surprise though. The United States has a long history of unilateral military intervention in Latin America. We aren't quite there yet in Venezuela, but all the signs point in that direction

[Big Abraham]

Neither of those says the US is massing military gear.

Nobody mentioned "gear" until you brought it up. What I said was military forces. Which is correct. See the articles above.

[Big Abraham]

Neither of those says the US is massing military gear.

Nobody mentioned "gear" until you brought it up. What I said was military forces. Which is correct. See the articles above.

The opposite would better support your argument. Using military hardware to transport non-military goods is gear but not forces, and I'm not sure reconnaissance flights can 'mass'.

The use of the word "mass" was issued prior to the revelations about increased recon flights, which in fact occurred about 20 hours ago. Nevertheless, military aircraft is obviously a part of military forces, and it's obvious that the whole scenario of delivering American aid into Venezuela (as opposed to UN aid, for example) from neighbouring countries was intended as a pretext for military intervention. The government in Caracas has warned of such in advance, as had Russia. Vice President Pence has already said a full-scale invasion is "on the table", Trump himself has strongly hinted at such, and this "humanitarian aid" everyone loves to talk about so much is designed as a provocation to Maduro's government and orchestrated by the man who praised the atrocities committed by the military forces of the American-backed government in El Salvador.

[Big Abraham]

Maduro refused UN aid months ago because the UN refused to let him distribute it and claim credit / keep people opposed to him from getting aid.

He's always been opposed to receiving aid, which is why the introduction of American aid at the border is not a mere humanitarian effort by the United States government, but a provocation.

Neither of those says the US is massing military gear.

Nobody mentioned "gear" until you brought it up. What I said was military forces. Which is correct. See the articles above.

The opposite would better support your argument. Using military hardware to transport non-military goods is gear but not forces, and I'm not sure reconnaissance flights can 'mass'.

The use of the word "mass" was issued prior to the revelations about increased recon flights, which in fact occurred about 20 hours ago. Nevertheless, military aircraft is obviously a part of military forces, and it's obvious that the whole scenario of delivering American aid into Venezuela (as opposed to UN aid, for example) from neighbouring countries was intended as a pretext for military intervention. The government in Caracas has warned of such in advance, as had Russia. Vice President Pence has already said a full-scale invasion is "on the table", Trump himself has strongly hinted at such, and this "humanitarian aid" everyone loves to talk about so much is designed as a provocation to Maduro's government and orchestrated by the man who praised the atrocities committed by the military forces of the American-backed government in El Salvador.

Whether you believe it is the intention of the US to invade Venezuela or not does not change the reality of what concentration of military force there currently is or is not near Venezuela.

Well, several sources listed earlier in this thread that I have cited are adamant that military forces in the form of aircraft have concentrated at the border to introduce foodstuffs and other goods into Venezuela. What exactly do you disagree with?