PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[KaiserDave]

I'm for Cartwright I think here, it makes a lot of logistical and practical sense.

I'm starting to think Fetterman is a paper tiger, not because of "spooky scary socialism" or anything like that, just because he's untested.

Cartwright is a battle tested winner with a proven record of winning Trump voters with a strong progressive platform. Let's go with Matt!

[KaiserDave]

Still with Fetterman. I wouldn't mind Cartwright, he seems really good as well, but a couple things swing it for me:

1. It doesn't seem like he actually is like uber-popular in the district, he won by a lot in 2016 but that election was much less polarized against some no-name underfunded opponent and he won by much less in 2020 (and I'm pretty sure his district voted for Biden anyway)
2. Even if he does have some unique appeal, I feel like keeping that seat in the House might also be important
3. I feel like the optics of a D candidate from Western PA are good

Fetterman seems no less strong than Cartwright, has been elected statewide (even if only as part of a gubernatorial ticket), and risks nothing if he loses, so I'm still on board.

Some refutations

1. Biden didn’t win Cartwright’s district (I’m 95% sure of this)
2. His district will probably become unwinnable due to reapportionment
3. Scranton is #populist country too!

Cartwright is a battle tested progressive champion of working people. Fetterman is that but without the testing. That’s how I make the decision

[KaiserDave]

Cartwright has all of Fetterman's advantages but also more electable, more tested, but unfortunately less Thanos like.

[KaiserDave]

Ah shoot, I don't know why I thought Biden won that district. In that case, like I said before, I think either one would be super. Sticking with Fetterman bc tall man make me smile but I'd be happy with either.

Have there been any whispers of a Cartwright candidacy?

Not that I know of, I expect such whispers to begin after reapportionment and redistricting.

[KaiserDave]

hmmmm

[KaiserDave]

[KaiserDave]

Me, a Cartwright supporter, sitting awkwardly this entire time:

[KaiserDave]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

AHAHHAHAHHAH

sorry
Need to laugh more

AHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHA

Nobody cares about Costello, nor his silly tweets. Just like....look at them. This is a joke tweet.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1361267708214587395?s=20

Ugh. This bozo. Guess he's worried about getting drawn out.

I mean, he’d probably be a stronger candidate than Fetterman, so...

Even if a genie told me this was the case I really cannot handle another Sinema in the Senate atm.

I don't disagree, but I think Lamb is smarter than that.

[KaiserDave]

[KaiserDave]

All I waanttt issss Matttttt (KaiserDave singing sadly in the mountains)


But yeah this makes this a wide open primary. I like Kenyatta but this campaign will tell me more about him. Will he go for Woke Blue Check #Socialism or will he focus on actual progressive populism? We shall see. So far I'd prefer Fetterman, but I honestly don't know.

[KaiserDave]

I wouldn't be opposed to Lamb, he's not nearly as moderate as people say, but I'd prefer Cartwright, Fetterman, and Kenyatta.

[KaiserDave]

Considering Pennsylvania hasn't had a black statewide politican of prominence in a long time (if ever? besides like Auditor General or something), this would be huge For Kenyatta. That could work in his favor.

Don't get the hype about Cartwright. Yeah, he did great in his district, but that's more reason for him to STAY there, b/c we'd lose that seat then if he'd lose. And I don't see Cartwright performing any different than someone like Lamb statewide. People may hate Lamb here for some reason, but PA is still very much a tossup, so I think he'd be an Ossoff-type statewide candidate (and I mean that in a good way)

I'm still not convinced Lamb will jump in though. Would make sense for him to wait for Attorney General, no?

I'm gonna be honest, I'd rather lose with Fetterman, Cartwright, or Kenyatta than win with Lamb. I cannot handle another Sinema sabotaging the Democratic agenda at every opportunity for "bipartisanship" points back home.

Or we could have a Republican that votes against 1% of everything good. So much worse than Lamb voting for 80% of everything good.

[KaiserDave]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

I have heard him speak and you’re right, John Fetterman and Conor Lamb (I haven’t heard Kenyatta speak enough to say) are both more charismatic than Cartwright.  However, I’ve also seen Cartwright’s victories in his district and the 2020 results speak for themselves.  Fetterman is ideologically better than Lamb and Lamb has a much stronger case from an electability standpoint.  Cartwright has both of their strengths (solid progressive, but also has a proven record of impressive over-performance in a tough district) with neither of their weaknesses. 

He may not be bursting with charisma, but he’s got a stronger claim than any other potential Democratic candidate to having somehow found the secret sauce to getting statistically significant crossover appeal and over-performing significantly in a tough district.

This, I've seen Matt speak and sure he might be a bit of a bore, but his wins speak more loudly.

[KaiserDave]

Not a Lamb supporter but



Not exactly screaming Sinema 2.0...

He's not as moderate as people say it is, even if Cartwright/Fetterman are better.

[KaiserDave]

Primary poll

Fetterman 29
Lamb 14
Keyanetta 9

Making it a 3 person race would be excellent news for Fetterman, it would stear the conversation away from the jogger story, whom is still the fav

Users jumped on the Keyenatta bandwagon too soon

Link, or did you make this all up?

Who cares! It’s OC he knows what he’s talking about.

[KaiserDave]

If you thought Markey vs. Kennedy was ugly, Kenyatta vs. Fetterman is just getting started (have fun with that, PA Dems):

https://twitter.com/malcolmkenyatta/status/1364290274852294656

Oh lord.

Malcolm c'mon. Firing the first shot a year ahead of the primary is dangerous! Please don't turn this into a civil war between Democrats, a civil war between progressives too!


I just want Matt to come in in save us all.

[KaiserDave]

I'm hopelessly pining for Matt, but it'll never happen.

[KaiserDave]

Joe Szymanski is not a reliable source

[KaiserDave]

Fetterman seems relatively moderate on the environment compared to the standard progressive profile. He opposes the GND (while "supporting parts of it"), principally because of objections to an "unrealistic" five-year energy transition and a fracking ban.

Although he has signed the 'No Fossil Fuel Money' pledge, the differences between him and, say, Lamb are more likely to become apparent on issues like healthcare, housing, etc. I suppose environmental policy could become a key fault line between Fetterman and Kenyatta but I don't think they will end up occupying 1st and 2nd place.

Not supporting the green new deal does not make you moderate.

Relatively

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

[KaiserDave]

The Fetterman=Bryce comparisons are very lazy, are you just looking at them and assuming they're similar because of their build and perhaps some of their rhetoric? Otherwise I see literally no reason, Fetterman and Bryce are very different in just about everyway they could be.

Except they’re really not all that different...

No? Randy Bryce was just a guy who was a perennial failed candidate with a light criminal record.

John Fetterman is a longtime Mayor and the current sitting Lieutenant Governor. They are in no way similar. This is very lazy analysis.

What do you mean? They are both working class presenting middle aged men with facial hair from Midwestern swing states. They’re practically identical!

They both are liked by leftists on Twitter! They are identical!!!

Serious question:

Are you or leecannon actually interested in having a discussion or just here to post lazy, bad-faith, straw men?  

I’d be happy to make an effort-post when I have a chance (it’ll probably be tomorrow) explaining why I think Fetterman has a lot in common with Bryce (hint: most of it isn’t the stuff you guys mentioned in your straw man posts) and I’d welcome your thoughts on said analysis if you still disagree, but if - and I say this as someone who thinks both of you are generally solid posters - you’re just gonna keep posting obnoxious straw men like the quoted posts regardless of what I say, then I don’t want to waste any of our time.  Fair enough?

Honestly, the reason I sometimes hesitate to make actual effort posts as opposed to something quicker like “Except they’re really not all that different...” is b/c it’s hard to tell around here when folks are actually looking for meaningful discourse and when making a more thoughtful post is just a waste of time.

Whoa. Here come the anti fun police. Not allowed to have fun on the Congressional Elections board huh?

Well if you post an effort post, I will respond in kind because this is a belief I actually hold. But if you'd rather write out weird high horse criticisms that's fine too.

[KaiserDave]

Costello is leaning against running.

Costello is irrelevant whether or not he runs, so...shrug.