Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[KaiserDave]

Gonna be honest. Don't care.

[KaiserDave]

This race annoys me. I don’t want my hopes up. There is no shot

Look at the spending .... 47M to 8m

Senator-elect McGrath and Harrison agree

[KaiserDave]

The difference between AOC and MTG is that conservatives hate AOC for her policies and agenda. MJT agenda is not QANON but rather just conservative policies.

It's not just that lol.

If "conservative policies" is complete insanity, then sure.

[KaiserDave]

Aside from one dubious line, that sermon seems pretty cool

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1329852788243886080

She has no reason to worry. Scott cast a charm to protect her, the Dark Lord is very powerful.

[KaiserDave]

The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

Yeah, all things considered then, Georgia is zipping away fast from the GOP.

[KaiserDave]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

[KaiserDave]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

Perfectly responsible comparison.

Throwing money at a race doesn't mean you win. How many times will super funded candidates have to lose for people to understand this.

We had the ultimate experiment with Michael Bloomberg, who went down in flames despite spending an ungodly mountain of cash.

Edit: It's not like Republicans weren't attacking Manchin on guns lol

Yes, WV and MT were races Republicans neglected. But it's more than just throwing cash, Rosendale and Morrisey were not the best candidates and had weak messages.

[KaiserDave]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

Perfectly responsible comparison.

Throwing money at a race doesn't mean you win. How many times will super funded candidates have to lose for people to understand this.

We had the ultimate experiment with Michael Bloomberg, who went down in flames despite spending an ungodly mountain of cash.

Throwing money in a state / district which is fundamentally hostile to you is not going to help you if the message is so so, sure, now throwing money in a state / district which structurally leans your way will at least help you to destroy the image of your opponent and to nationalize the race, and when a race which takes place on favourable ground is nationalised you will win it (see Peterson fall in Minnesota).

And? Republicans spent in West Virginia and Montana. Trump visited Montana more than any other state. It's true that the NRSC wasted time in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona that year but just spending more isn't going to win.

Sarah Gideon had a mountain of dollars in a state Biden won by 10. It did her no good because her message was bad.

[KaiserDave]

Just imagine if a fraction of this money had been spent against Manchin and Tester in 2018.

Shouting a bad message louder doesn't mean you win.

Paging Senator-elect Gideon and Harrison

Absurd comparison.

Money will help you when you are running on favourable ground as it can help you drive down the image of your opponent (if you spend $ 45M of negative ads against Manchin in which you attack him on his anti guns positions you can bet it will damage him), now sure if you are running in a hostile state money will have a more limited effect.

Perfectly responsible comparison.

Throwing money at a race doesn't mean you win. How many times will super funded candidates have to lose for people to understand this.

We had the ultimate experiment with Michael Bloomberg, who went down in flames despite spending an ungodly mountain of cash.

Throwing money in a state / district which is fundamentally hostile to you is not going to help you if the message is so so, sure, now throwing money in a state / district which structurally leans your way will at least help you to destroy the image of your opponent and to nationalize the race, and when a race which takes place on favourable ground is nationalised you will win it (see Peterson fall in Minnesota).

And? Republicans spent in West Virginia and Montana. Trump visited Montana more than any other state. It's true that the NRSC wasted time in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Arizona that year but just spending more isn't going to win.

Sarah Gideon had a mountain of dollars in a state Biden won by 10. It did her no good because her message was bad.

Manchin outspent Morrissey by 2 to 1 ratio, in MT it was even worse.

Okay? Matching spending enough wasn't going to save Morrisey and Rosendale.

They had flawed messages and weak campaigns.

[KaiserDave]

In a midterm election cycle, #candidatequality matters more.

Rosendale and especially Morrisey were weak.

Tim Fox and Evan Jenkins would certainly have done better.

[KaiserDave]

In a midterm election cycle, #candidatequality matters more.

Rosendale and especially Morrisey were weak.

Tim Fox and Evan Jenkins would certainly have done better.

Evan Jenkins would probably beaten Manchin but I'm not sure if Fox would have done so. Nobody would have beaten Tester unless if Zinke didn't leave for secretary of interior and ran against him in 2018

I agree. Fox vs Tester would have been quite close

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/mbaram/status/1329896177073074182?s=20

Pweeeeassseee

[KaiserDave]

but democrats shouldn't tie MTG to republicans because reasons

[KaiserDave]

but democrats shouldn't tie MTG to republicans because reasons

Because there are probably more effective attacks.

Sure, but leaving this one on the table isn't a bad idea. Introduce the population to the lunatics. Literally why not. At the very least raise awareness.

[KaiserDave]

In a state senate race near me, the Republican tried to make cash bail a wedge issue. He lost.

It was a seat that Dems flipped in 2018, and will retain.

[KaiserDave]

Well, Ossoff retweeted his tweet so I guess he's fine with his endorsement.

Sanders would definitely have lost Georgia if he was the nominee and probably the entire election as well.

And Sanders' endorsement to Ossoff and Warnock will likely reinforce the warning that if the Dems take the Senate, Bernie Sanders would be in line to become Chairman of the Senate Committee on Budget, which means a vote for Ossoff and Warnock is a vote for a socialist takeover of the budget, for much more deficit, for out of control spending, of trillions of dollars of new taxes.

Wonderful!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1333127337710399495?s=21

Just a little reminder that Kelly Loeffler has a net worth of $500 million.

I hate her so much. The only thing she knows about paychecks is that it's that thing her underling gives to the poors.

Also her only healthcare plan is that you don't pay premiums if you've died of a pre-existing condition.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/gov-hogan-vote-loeffler-perdue-to-uphold-moderation-and-compromise-in-the-us-senate

Hogan endorses Loeffler and Perdue and loses much of my respect

Also his justification is very lame

I guess he really wants to run for President and get 8% in the New Hampshire primary

[KaiserDave]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/gov-hogan-vote-loeffler-perdue-to-uphold-moderation-and-compromise-in-the-us-senate

Hogan endorses Loeffler and Perdue and loses much of my respect

Also his justification is very lame

I guess he really wants to run for President and get 8% in the New Hampshire primary

Why would Larry Hogan endorse Qelly Loeffler and David "pray for Obama's death" Perdue?

Believe he thinks he's a viable 2024 candidate.

[KaiserDave]

Phil Scott would do the same if he could as well.
All Republicans are spineless and have been complicit in the destruction of America, I don’t care how nice they seem they are watching our country die for fun.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/gov-hogan-vote-loeffler-perdue-to-uphold-moderation-and-compromise-in-the-us-senate

Hogan endorses Loeffler and Perdue and loses much of my respect

Also his justification is very lame

I guess he really wants to run for President and get 8% in the New Hampshire primary

Why would Larry Hogan endorse Qelly Loeffler and David "pray for Obama's death" Perdue?

Believe he thinks he's a viable 2024 candidate.

Lol in what universe, he's going to get absolutely blown out

Yes, he is delusional

[KaiserDave]

Ugh. The red scare machine is in full swing.

My lord, Warnock doesn't even support M4A! This is a campaign focused on expanding ACA and rural jobs, it's hardly a bomb throwing lefty one.

And no doubt Warnock being a black man, a black preacher no less will fuel the red scare machine's menace.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1334175857401876482

This opinion writer 1. thinks that Qelly Loeffler is not too radical for Georgia voters, a talking point I've always found a little racist since it deligitimizes the votes of so many black residents of the third blackest state as well as overlooking Loeffler's radicalism, 2. thinks Virginia "leans blue," and 3. is a Lincoln Projectite hack who thought that Mike Pence should and could step up to handle COVID since Donald Trump wouldn't.

Checkmate Lincolnites

(you're an FF if you get the reference)

[KaiserDave]

thank you Mr. President

mwahahahahhahahahahahhahaha