He’ll be completely overhyped, some junky polls will predictably underestimate D strength in the state, Biden will campaign for his D opponent (not that it will matter), and he’ll go on to (obviously) lose by double digits on election day. Many will then unironically attribute it to GOP 'obstructionism' and Biden's campaign appearances similar to D'Amato's loss in 1998 (who totally would have won had Newt not been so mean to the Clintons and if Bill and Hillary had not campaigned for Schumer) even though it was always beyond obvious that he was never going to win regardless of the 'quality' of his campaign.
I agree that Schumer would have won without Clinton campaigning or Gingrich's epic fail at being Speaker, but I don't agree with the premise that D'Amato was DOA. His singular focus on Clinton scandals after 1992 was just not smart for a Republican in New York. Especially when by 1998 positions like those were toxic for Republicans in New York. I think if D'Amato changed his approach coming out of the gate in 1992, he could have won in 98. Especially because Republicans did win in New York in 1998.
In any case Faulconer will be lucky to get 42%
