Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/1354773412753903622

:eyes:

[KaiserDave]

Howard Dean is basicaly a twitter sh**tposter when it comes to his political takes, amazing to think he was once the governor of Vermont and chair of the DNC.

He's not completely wrong. Although it is an unfair generalization (but becoming more true sadly).

[KaiserDave]

For the record I don't think Scott changes parties OR runs for Senate. But we'll see.

[KaiserDave]

What ever happen to the 14 year old that got 8% of the d primary vote

Not much apparently.

[KaiserDave]

War in the VTGOP!

https://vtdigger.org/2021/02/02/a-wide-open-wound-capitol-riots-test-the-vermont-republican-party/


The VTGOP is at war with itself, Xander Landen of the VTDigger writes. There are essentially three factions. The Trumpists who are demanding a fully cult-ized state party, and who want Phil Scott out, the Philists who want Deb Billado out for not condemning the Trump insurrection and for being an all around Trump hack. Then there's the third camp of mushy moderates who want everyone to stay and calm down.

Local parties at at each others throat, Burlington GOP Chair, 19 year old Kolby LaMarche called for Billado's resignation. In response, at least three prominent Burlington GOP members want him out. Of course the Essex County GOP is the most aggressively pro-Trump, and has circulated the petition (now with 1,600 signatories) to get Phil out of the party. There are deep divisions within the VTGOP, between those primarily loyal to Phil, and those primarily loyal to Trump. And this fight has happened before.

https://vtdigger.org/2018/12/04/gop-committee-member-says-moderates-planning-revolt-leadership/

In 2018 the Philists attempted to seize power from Billado, but Trumpists successfully rallied by attacking Scott for opposing Kavanaugh and for making the party a "laughing stock at the national level" by moving it to the center.

We'll see who wins this time. If the Trumpist Right wins, it could have a major impact on Scott's 2022 calculations and political career.

[KaiserDave]

Yeah it's confusing. Especially people saying, apparently genuinely, that they think they'd win more if the party went all in on Trumpism. They just appear to be very delusional.

[KaiserDave]

Yeah it's confusing. Especially people saying, apparently genuinely, that they think they'd win more if the party went all in on Trumpism. They just appear to be very delusional.

You know, if you remove the illiegal votes and the votes stolen by Dominion, Trump got 62% in Vermont.

Liar! He got 97%! How much did Chavez pay you?!?!

[KaiserDave]

Yeah it's confusing. Especially people saying, apparently genuinely, that they think they'd win more if the party went all in on Trumpism. They just appear to be very delusional.

Yeah, you wonder what they see when they look at Phil Scott winning with almost 70% of the vote at the same time as their hero Trump got 30%.

It's very puzzling just how silly they are being. If they kick Phil out the party will be crippled!

[KaiserDave]

Is there any reason why the VPP has fallen into irrelevance lately as Republicans expand their margins there? Any change in policy or rhetoric to produce national margins among WWC voters?

Which places are you referring to in Republicans expanding their margins?

[KaiserDave]

Is there any reason why the VPP has fallen into irrelevance lately as Republicans expand their margins there? Any change in policy or rhetoric to produce national margins among WWC voters?

Which places are you referring to in Republicans expanding their margins?

Generally rural areas and whatever mess happened in the Gubernatorial election.

On the presidential level, rural Vermont swung towards Biden big time. In Essex County, which was the only one Trump won, there were townships that Biden got +40% in where Hillary was in the mid 20s. Across the state Biden saw swings in rural areas, mostly in the high single digits or mid teens. Although this is probably still worse than Obama 08 and Obama 12 did in rural areas. This I suppose is just national trends manifesting, although rural areas in Vermont are still predominantly Democratic, and far more Democratic than neighboring New Hampshire, Maine, and New York, never mind the midwest.

As for the governor's race, that had nothing to do with the parties involved (VPP, VTDP, and VTGOP). That was just Phil Scott vs David Zuckerman, and Phil was always going to win, regardless of any strategies the VPP and VTDP may have employed.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/02/18/burlington-gop-chair-resigns-says-party-hijacked-by-far-right-extremists/

A rising star in the VTGOP, Burlington Party Chair 19 year old Kolby LaMarche has resigned, and left the party due to party leadership not condemning Trump for the insurrection attempt.

Who will be the next casualty of the VTGOP fight?

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/02/18/burlington-gop-chair-resigns-says-party-hijacked-by-far-right-extremists/

A rising star in the VTGOP, Burlington Party Chair 19 year old Kolby LaMarche has resigned, and left the party due to party leadership not condoning Trump for the insurrection attempt.

Who will be the next casualty of the VTGOP fight?

Do you mean condemn?

Also, the VTGOP is sending itself into perpetual irrelevance. You'd think the fact that Vermont was Biden's best state in 2020 and simultaneously reelected the most moderate GOP elected official in the country would give the party a pretty clear framework to work with, but I guess you can't fix stupid.

I do mean condemn, thanks for point that out

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/02/18/burlington-gop-chair-resigns-says-party-hijacked-by-far-right-extremists/

A rising star in the VTGOP, Burlington Party Chair 19 year old Kolby LaMarche has resigned, and left the party due to party leadership not condoning Trump for the insurrection attempt.

Who will be the next casualty of the VTGOP fight?

Do you mean condemn?

Also, the VTGOP is sending itself into perpetual irrelevance. You'd think the fact that Vermont was Biden's best state in 2020 and simultaneously reelected the most moderate GOP elected official in the country would give the party a pretty clear framework to work with, but I guess you can't fix stupid.

unless Phil going to run for senate what point do Phil Scott serve the national gop

We're talking about the VTGOP, not the cult

[KaiserDave]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/03/governors-biden-symposium-470164

Phil was asked about what keeps him worried right now and a big issue the Biden Administration should grapple with in a POLITICO interview. He said

1.
"There are many things that have kept governors up at night these past nine months, but one of the most serious challenges we face is the amount of COVID-related misinformation and denial we see, fueled by online conspiracy theories and fact-free ideological websites."

2. He also spoke about the urgent need for rural broadband. Outlining the need for a New Deal approach to the issue.
"We have faced a similar problem before and must pursue a similar solution. In the early 20th Century, the urban-rural divide was electricity. Recognizing the importance of electrification to the economy and quality of life in rural America, Congress passed the Rural Electrification Act (REA), which helped states like Vermont get to the last mile. Our country needs an REA-type approach to broadband to help grow our economy, which will help states raise revenue organically to invest in other critical areas."
https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367157830415908867?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...
Here are his words repeated by California Rep Ro Khanna
https://twitter.com/RoKhanna/status/1367095163286396934

He's so great

[KaiserDave]

Wowee. That's a lot of federal aid. Well, that's what you get when both the Budget and Appropriations chairmen are Senators from your state!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355

If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

I'd actually be really interested in what a Senator Scott would look like. If he focused on bipartisan achievements, and depolarisation, he could actually be an important player.

He'd still almost certainly be a vote to reinstate McConnell as Majority Leader though, so it's kind of a double-edged sword.

Hence why I'd only support him if he pulled a Jeffords. And that's probably the only way he'd actually win.

[KaiserDave]

I think independent Phil Scott caucusing with the Democrats would be a big positive influence on the U.S. Senate. Although I highly doubt he runs, and I'd be open to certain Vermont Democrats in the U.S. Senate (NOT Molly Gray).


I'm still mad she beat Tim Ashe. Yuck.

[KaiserDave]

I think independent Phil Scott caucusing with the Democrats would be a big positive influence on the U.S. Senate. Although I highly doubt he runs, and I'd be open to certain Vermont Democrats in the U.S. Senate (NOT Molly Gray).


I'm still mad she beat Tim Ashe. Yuck.

What's wrong with Vermont Lieutenant Governor?

Still mad she beat Agrarian Progressive Tim Ashe for the Lt. Gov primary who was an accomplished legislator whereas she had spent a lot of time overseas, didn't vote in many Vermont elections, and won seemingly just with the support of the powerful Kunin family.

I'd like to see T.J. Donovan or an Ashe comeback before seeing her getting elevated to the U.S. Senate so soon.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/03/16/life-could-be-back-to-normal-by-the-fourth-of-july-gov-scott-says/


Life could return to normal by the Fourth of July, Gov. Scott says

Reminds me of a VTDigger article from a few months ago. "The Eternal Sunshine of Phil Scott"

[KaiserDave]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/24/trump-gop-governors-baker-hogan-scott-477718

Very lazy analysis from Politico. Grouping Scott, Hogan, and Baker all together as "blue state Republicans becoming unpopular with Trump gone." While it's absolutely true that Baker and Hogan have become less popular as of late, anybody who has followed the numbers can tell you Scott has seen little to no erosion in his numbers.

The article goes on and on about all three have seen their numbers fall, and only citing one number about Scott that I am having trouble verifying about his COVID approval going from 78% to 70% from October to February. If that is true, it's probably Republicans, given the infighting in the VTGOP and the right wing complaining over Scott's Thanksgiving questionnaire.

Politico makes a common mistake though, conflating these three Northeastern Republican governors.

[KaiserDave]

Phil Scott Update

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1377683282230452236?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Gov. Scott supporting? Biden's infrastructure plan, previously supported the stimulus


https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1377282763951374338?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Birthday wishes to Senator Leahy

[KaiserDave]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2021/04/05/scott-defends-decision-to-open-vaccinations-to-all-bipoc-vermonters

Phil not backing down on the vaccine issue

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/06/scott-rolls-out-timeline-for-full-reopening/

Scott unveils plan for nigh-full reopening by July 4th