IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[KaiserDave]

I don't really see this seat flipping. With Scholten not running, I'd say we refocus our resources on NC, both GA, KS, AZ and defending MI.

[KaiserDave]

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

Well, fair enough, but wasn’t that to be expected? This has been considered one of the best pick-up opportunities by the DSCC from day one.

I’d be much more worried about TX when it comes to fundraising.

DSCC is deluded if they think this is a better spot than AZ, NC, or GA.

[KaiserDave]

I swearif Joni Ernst hadmy grown her hair out, she would have more #populist appeal lol

Now she looks more neoliberal!

[KaiserDave]

Joni Ernst tours the state by motorcycle in the final days of 'tough, tough, tough' re-election fight.

"It's not what I feel on the ground," she said. "It's not what I feel when I'm traveling through all 99 counties of Iowa. I am out there, every single week, traveling to a different county and meeting with Iowans."

I detect #populism

[KaiserDave]

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

Yeah, with IceSpear (RIP FF) taking care of the hashtag and the pink heart. It’s mostly a meme to express the hollowness and absurdity/arbitrariness with which the ‘populist’ label is thrown around and to point out how incredibly laughable the clichés about said ‘populist’ voters are, and I can’t say it failed in that regard, even if it triggers certain posters.

Trust me, there are no "populist" tendencies of any stripe in the "ideology" of people who support Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte but can’t bring themselves to vote for Amanda Curtis or Kathleen Williams, regardless of how loosely we define the term without veering into complete absurdity where it loses all of its meaning.

What happened to IceSpear

IceSpear hasn’t logged in for six months.

why? is he good

I mean he based his half his personality on that Matt Bevin was going to win

Then Bevin lost. It hurt his standing in the forum.

I admit I was on the Bevinevitable train, but I didn't over-focus on it.

[KaiserDave]

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

Yeah, with IceSpear (RIP FF) taking care of the hashtag and the pink heart. It’s mostly a meme to express the hollowness and absurdity/arbitrariness with which the ‘populist’ label is thrown around and to point out how incredibly laughable the clichés about said ‘populist’ voters are, and I can’t say it failed in that regard, even if it triggers certain posters.

Trust me, there are no "populist" tendencies of any stripe in the "ideology" of people who support Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte but can’t bring themselves to vote for Amanda Curtis or Kathleen Williams, regardless of how loosely we define the term without veering into complete absurdity where it loses all of its meaning.

What happened to IceSpear

IceSpear hasn’t logged in for six months.

why? is he good

I mean he based his half his personality on that Matt Bevin was going to win

Then Bevin lost. It hurt his standing in the forum.

I admit I was on the Bevinevitable train, but I didn't over-focus on it.

It wasn't just Bevin. IceSpear has long insisted that no Democrat can win a red state because of "racist hicks". He (accurately) thought this of Phil Bredesen's Senate run, but also Joe Manchin and Doug Jones. Funny thing is that Alben Barkley joined the forum just to rebut IceSpear going on about Bevin's reelection supposedly being inevitable.

That is true. Barkley was the counterweight, insisting the Dems can win in Red States.

[KaiserDave]

I still think Ernst is being underestimated. But.....

She is running an atrocious campaign. This is so embarrassing.

[KaiserDave]

Y I K E S at that underperformance

DES MOINES, Iowa (KTIV) -- Over the course of this week, tens of thousands of Iowa students cast their ballots in Secretary of State’s Paul Pate’s Iowa Youth Straw Poll.

They voted for their preferred candidates in the U.S. Presidential race, along with Iowa’s U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. More than 225 schools and 31,000 students participated.  

Donald Trump won the presidential race 55%-32% over Joe Biden. Kayne West is in third at 9%.

Joni Ernst defeated Theresa Greenfield in the U.S. Senate race, 53%-38%.

https://ktiv.com/2020/10/28/trump-ernst-win-iowa-youth-straw-poll/

Is youth outreach a completely foreign concept to her campaign? Good lord.

I guess they just don't like motorcycles

[KaiserDave]

Of course you were right here, but the fact that the margin was the same as MO-SEN 2018 either speaks on 2018's hard D lean, or Ernst's weaknesses. Probably the former.