2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[cwh2018]

I assume Florida casting more than 10 million votes in the election is a given as 9.4 million were cast in 2016.  Not sure if they can hit 10.5 million.

[cwh2018]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

[cwh2018]

What is the story with Seminole county in Florida, it is well behind on mail in returns versus everywhere else.  What is the demographics of the county in terms of young/old and white/minority, does that help explain it?

[cwh2018]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

I'm not so sure. Look at how NC has trended relative to the nation as a whole since 1996:

1996: R+13
2000: R+13
2004: R+10
2008: R+7
2012: R+6
2016: R+6

NC has been trending clearly Dem for at least 20 years, albeit more slowly in the last couple of cycles. Unless that trend reverses by at least two points this year and NC votes 8 points to the right of the nation for the first time since 2004, I think Biden can safely expect to win NC if he's winning by 6 nationally, and possibly as little as 4 or 5 if that trend continues.

Yeah I should have said to be very confident of winning NC then he needs to win by 8, I think Biden plus nationally makes NC a genuine 50-50 race.  I actually have Biden winning by 6 in my final prediction and am most unsure of NC

[cwh2018]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

[cwh2018]

What sort of numbers returned by mail do people expect by say next weekend to feel comfortbale with the process for dems.   Next question, what sort of return rates do you expect in states that mailed people ballots for the first time? obviously you have a good idea with states that use mail-in already like Colorado, I am just curious how people think a state like California or New Jersey who sent everyone a ballot, regardless of whether they requested one or not looks this time.  My guesstimate for California is 15-15.5 million

[cwh2018]

Florida Turnout Tracker

After this morning's data from the Florida DOE we can see further advancement (albeit a little slower for Ds) toward the 2016 EV Total

Dem  46.0% (+2.8 )
Rep   40.2% (+3.5)
NPA   29.8% (+2.4)

As I have said, no need to even look at the R number (unless they were blowing Ds out), they will get their 80-81% in the end.  Just need to make sure Ds match it this year.  Currently with roughly 3% gains a day they will achieve this statewide sometime Tuesday, a full week ahead of the election...  Hot Take: Put down the Xanax.




In terms of Counties, 12 of 68 counties have already achieved last years EV Turnout including suburb type Pasco and Sarasota Counties.  Look for large Palm Beach and bellwether Pinellas to hit them today.  Yes, there is work to be done in Miami-Dade, Broward and Orange....but plenty of time....and already better than where they were at this time in 2016.

Is there an issue with Seminole county, it is the lowest on all measures so far.  It is it a younger population county?

Seminole County had the 3rd largest % increase (of 68) in Democrat registrants from 2016 to 2020 from 98,117 to 116,625 a 19% increase, only surpassed by Collier and St. Johns Counties.  In raw votes they are doing good, but they are a bit behind in %.  Unsure of the demographic makeup of these new registrants

Seminole mailed out absentee ballots later than elsewhere (as did Dade). Both counties have since caught up to their neighbors, though, and are now only slightly below average, though their percentage of mail-in ballots returned is still low (not surprising given they were sent out a week later).

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Thanks for the response.

[cwh2018]

What sort of total vote do you think we are looking at in Florida? 9.5 million voted in 2016, an increase of 1 million on 2012.  I have it at 10.5-11 million as the final estimate.

[cwh2018]

Georgia, Tuesday 5 PM Update:, 184,989 votes have been cast on Tuesday.

This includes 141,982 in-person votes and 43,007 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,111,512 in-person & 1,048,295 by mail, for a grand total of 3,159,807 (75.86% of 2016 total vote).

North Carolina had 4.8 million in 2016 and look set to comfortably clear 5 million this year.  Georgia had just over 4 million in 2016,even though they have an almost identical population.  Georgia probably won't get to 5 million, but it could get towards 4.8 million.
GA still getting lost in the noise. What is happening there is major.

[cwh2018]

Anyone want to guess on a number for final Texas turnout when all is said and done.  Texas just passed 8.1 million with 3 days left for early voting.  I think with population growth and a small spike in turnout nationwide Texas vote floor should be 10.5 million.  I expect Texas to ultimately fall pretty flat for everyone.  Despite the hype I think we will get about 10.8 million-11million.  For the hype to be justified I think you have to get close to 12 million.

[cwh2018]

It seems like at the current pace + a bit of an Election Day bump, Democrats will hit 80% turnout.  Do Florida experts think this is enough? 

From what  have seen Florida dems had 75% total turnout versus 81% for the GOP in 2016. The guy I follow is hoping for 80% Florida dem turnout in total, or to stay within 3% of the GOP turnout figure.  They hope Dems can get to 65%-70% by the end of the early vote.

[cwh2018]

What is the story with Texas yesterday.  No vote totals from Harris,Dallas,Bexar,Travis and some smaller counties.  Must be an error with Montgomery as well as it says 40,448 voted yesterday when counties of a comparative size had 4,000? Must be clerical error and should be 4,448.  By my estimate roughly 125,000 votes not added yet,(this includes the subtraction of 36,000 from Montgomery).

[cwh2018]

Georgia, Thursday 5 PM Update:, 164,823 votes have been cast thus far on Thursday.

This includes 127,771 in-person votes and 37,052 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,444,185 in-person & 1,144,157 by mail, for a grand total of 3,588,342 (86.15% of 2016 total vote).

What sort of overall turnout are we looking at in Georgia after election night? how close to 5 million do you think they can get to? 
Does Georgia's early vote end on Friday?