2022 Senate midterms with a Democratic president (2021-23)

[ctherainbow]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

[ctherainbow]

Wisconsin flips but not PA?  

I could see Wisconsin and Pennsylvania both flipping if Trump loses traction in the Rust Belt, and Georgia could continue to trend Dem and flip, but I don't really see a high possibility of Ron Johnson's seat going down while Toomey holds on.  Pennsylvania has been looking more hostile to Republicans since 2016 than Wisconsin has, and I don't see Toomey making up that difference with his incumbency/campaigning skills. 

Republicans came out of 2018 in PA far better than they came out of 2006. Both Rendell and Casey won by more than Wolf and Casey did in 2018, Republicans ended up down 11-8 with a GOP gerrymander, and they tied the delegation this time with a fair map. Republicans also held the State House of Representatives, which they lost in 2006 and both times were with Republican drawn maps.

There was also the understanding that Pat Toomey was more conservative than Santorum so there is no way he can possibly win, which since he is now a two term Senator I think the results speak for themselves.

PA is and will remain a closely divided state and we will have to see what happens in 2020 but after McCain lost it by 10%, Dems picked up the Erie based seat (then PA-03) and secured their majority in the House, few people gave Republicans a chance. The 2010 elections are a cautionary tale of predicting long term dominance in a closely divided swing state.

I’m not predicting long-term Democratic dominance in PA, though?  I simply stated that Pennsylvania in recent elections has been more hostile to Pubs than Wisconsin, hence I didn’t see Ron Johnson’s seat flipping in the same theoretical election that Toomey’s seat doesn't.  Did you not understand my original post, or maybe accidentally quoted the wrong person?   

[ctherainbow]

Dems are gonna win WI and Pa, Fetterman will run for Gov, in a Joe Biden midterm. McGinty was too liberal for the state, in 2016, Dems will find a Fetterman candidacy for Senate and Ron Kind is almost certain to run for WI senate, due to gerrymandering in WI.

But, Trump isnt gonna lose in a landslide

What happened to Sestak?   

[ctherainbow]

My whole post was in response to your last sentence, "I don't see Toomey making that up with his incumbency advantage/campaigning skills". Hence why I started off by saying Republicans came out of 2018 far better than 2006 and yet Toomey was able to not only win in 2010 but get reelected as well. Basically you said Toomey isn't going to overcome this disadvantage and I responded by saying he overcame a worse one already.

But Pat Toomey's not a particularly strong Pennsylvania incumbent.  He won by half a point LESS in his re-election campaign, in what was arguably PA Republicans' strongest presidential election cycle showing in nearly two decades.  If you believe that he overcame a stronger challenge in 2010 than in 2016, yet managed to do worse in what should have been an easier cycle for him, I don't see why we wouldn't be worried about his chances going into 2022.

And the entire point of my original post was not "Toomey is such a weak politician that he won't be re-elected", it was "Toomey won re-election with less than half the margin that Ron Johnson did, so I don't see why Wisconsin's seat would flip in the same scenario that Toomey's seat doesn't, especially given that if Toomey sticks to his guns on term limits for the senate like he did as a House member, it would mean he retires and both seats are open."  Hopefully you understand what I was trying to get across now.    

[ctherainbow]

I never said I wasn't worried about his chances. Frankly, I find Toomey's performances to be very impressive considering how fiscally conservative he is, he isn't really a good match for the state nor its GOP base even at this point on issues like trade, but he is adapt at zig zagging to the center on social issues like guns.

I will admit that he's done well thus far in the state given his fiscal conservatism, but if Toomey continues to have overall tightening margins like he has thus far, or collapses in the Philly burbs like the overwhelming majority of the PA GOP has recently, he's toast.  His overperformance compared to Hillary in areas like Bucks County helped push him over the top in 2016, and he only outperformed Trump by 0.1%.  As I do expect Trump to lose PA in 2020 first out of any of the Rust Belt states he flipped in 2016, I don't expect to see Toomey winning even if he does run again.  But we'll have to see!