Why is Tester doing so much better than Heitkamp?

[ctherainbow]

- The states have different demographics, because neighboring each other does not mean similar demographics(see PA vs NJ, AZ vs NM, UT vs CO, or NC vs SC)
- Huge influx in ND of energy workers who are scared of the liberal Dems enacting environmental regulations, and/or climbing through their windows at night to eat their small children
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester's haircut
- People are afraid Heitkamp has no soul because gingers

[ctherainbow]

They actually do have quite similar demographics, see here, the main differences between the states are median income ($59K in ND vs $48K in MT) and North Dakota being more Republican.

But the rest of your points are solid.

Although the demographic differences aren't as big as the examples I posted, there are some key ones that stand out to me.  Montanans are better educated but less insured, both of which would indicate more Democratic support.  And while Montana is whiter than North Dakota, a good chunk of nonwhites in North Dakota are likely to be reliably Republican non-renewable energy workers who are new to the state and might not have the connection to Heitkamp that Montanans have to Tester.