Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[SnowLabrador]

Rosen isn't completely doomed, but this race is no better than a tossup for her. Cortez Masto only won by less than 1%, and GOP turnout is likely to soar with Trump or DeSantis on the ballot. Tilt R.

[SnowLabrador]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

I find it hard to see Biden winning Nevada by anything close to 8 points. Partisan registration in Nevada has been moving towards Republicans ever since Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection and Sisolak lost.

[SnowLabrador]

Wait, is he really running?

[SnowLabrador]

If Marchant wins the primary this is Lean D. I view NV-PRES as a tossup, and I don't think there will be legions of Trump-Rosen voters.

[SnowLabrador]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

[SnowLabrador]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

I disagree about Arizona. Sinema running third-party makes it very unpredictable. I also disagree about Wisconsin - that one's a tossup.

[SnowLabrador]

Almost nobody is talking about this race, but I honestly think it's a tossup at best for Democrats given the current national environment. I know that the GOP doesn't need it for a majority, but they sure as hell would love to defeat Rosen.

[SnowLabrador]

Gunter sounds like a clown. He's probably easier for Rosen to beat than Sam Brown. To those saying Democrats should be careful what they wish for, I see no reason to think Gunter and Sam Brown would vote any differently.