TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[SnowLabrador]

Cruz wins 53-46 in one of the most overrated races of the cycle. All the money in the world can't change the fact that Texas isn't there yet, and might never be.

[SnowLabrador]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

[SnowLabrador]

Something I haven't heard discussed on this forum very much is the brain drain from Texas. Many Democratic voters are going to leave the state in the next two years due to the state's abortion ban. This will make the state redder.

I have mixed feelings about this. While we need Democrats to live in red states in order to make them not-red states, if I lived in Texas I'd want to move to a blue state as well. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

You really think a mass amount of Democrats will leave the state over that?

It's a pretty serious issue, thousands of women are dying because they can't get abortions. For every horror story that makes local news, there are hundreds we don't know about. If I lived in Texas, I would want to get the hell out ASAP.

[SnowLabrador]

How will Ted Cruz do compared to the GOP presidential nominee in 2024?

I don’t see any good argument for why he’d do better than Trump or DeSantis. It’s pretty clear in hindsight that the reason for his close call in 2018 was because of Cruz himself, not because of some O’Rourke stardom.

I'm not so sure about this. Never forget that candidate quality can change. In 2018 O'Rourke was inspiring and exciting, in 2022 he was a perennial candidate. Another good example of this is Bill Nelson, who went from winning by 13 points in a good environment for Democrats to narrowly losing in an even better environment for Democrats.

[SnowLabrador]

Oh god, oh f**k... https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1640237678447796225

What?

It means Allred isn't running for Senate. Quite frankly, though, I don't think any Democrat can beat Cruz, so I'm not too saddened by this. It could be an indicator, however, that the Democrats expect 2024 to go poorly.

[SnowLabrador]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

So was Ron Johnson, in a less red state than Texas. And Johnson won. Approval ratings don't mean s**t for Senators.

[SnowLabrador]

Gutierrez seems like as good a candidate as anyone, but there are still plenty of areas of Texas that are trending Republican. It's moving slightly leftward on balance, but it remains to be seen if the state's abortion ban will create enough of a brain drain to halt this trend.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1700266328953934129

It looks like the Democratic Primary is heading to a runoff.

This is starting to remind me of the 2020 Texas Senate race, which wasn't really a "race." All available evidence shows that the Democrats don't think TX-SEN 2024 is winnable.

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Texas goes D before Montana.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1789049753650532400?t=aVwO76-T-ZF-X4DodtlB...
Lol and people called him a good candidate

It's only Fox News reporting this. Realistically, anyone who would vote against Allred for this reason was already voting for Cruz. This doesn't affect the final result much if at all.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1789049753650532400?t=aVwO76-T-ZF-X4DodtlB...
Lol and people called him a good candidate

It's only Fox News reporting this. Realistically, anyone who would vote against Allred for this reason was already voting for Cruz. This doesn't affect the final result much if at all.

Swing voters in Texas are very against illegal immigration. Of course it'll affect the final result lmao.

I'm rather skeptical, just because Republicans always accuse Democrats of being soft on this issue.