I think Kevin Rudd will win, and win big. I have been following the campaign on the internet through sites like
www.pollbludger.com and the websites of the main aussie newspapers and it reminds me very much of the 1997 General Election in Britain - a government that has been in power for ever and is seen as being one of the most formidable election-winning machines in the world, but which is tired, divided and well past its sell by date. Nobody can bring themselves to believe the opinion polls, but I guess they are probably right (like in 1997).
Another uncanny similarity was a Liberal minister quoted in one of the papers saying he's bemused because "there doesn't appear to be any hostility to us on the doorsteps". I remember Tory friends in 1997 saying exactly the same thing. What they didn't realise was that the electorate had long since decided that it was time for a change and didn't see the need to add insults to injury.
I am of course backing Rudd and the ALP.
I think in 2004 I would have stuck a peg on my nose and backed Howard - Mark Latham was a lunatic and there was no way I could have supported his anti-war / anti-American message. Some of us in the Labour Party actually took great heart from Howard's victory in 2004; it showed that, with the exception of a few middle class "liberal intelligentsia" constituencies, Iraq wasn't going to be that huge an issue at our election a few months later, despite the fulminating of the BBC, the Independent etc.
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