WY-AL: Trauner (D) leads Lummis (R) by 3% in open House race (user search)
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  WY-AL: Trauner (D) leads Lummis (R) by 3% in open House race (search mode)
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Author Topic: WY-AL: Trauner (D) leads Lummis (R) by 3% in open House race  (Read 5683 times)
JSojourner
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Posts: 11,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

« on: May 30, 2008, 11:27:33 PM »

I'm delighted Barbara "I Slap The Disabled" Cubin is not seeking re-election.  So either way, we're probably ahead of the game.  But I like Trauner and would be elated if he could pull this one off.  I think it's highly unlikely, however.
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JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2008, 11:58:56 PM »


You really think so, Meek?  I know he caucused well there but it is Wyoming, after all.  I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.  But I am not sure Obama will do well in the general there.

Hope I'm wrong!
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JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2008, 03:56:00 PM »

I think there might be some coattail if Governor Freudenthal were running for one of the open Senate seats.

Speaking of slamming my head against the wall to make the pain go away...

...

...since when do downballot candidates have coattails for other downballot candidates?  Especially when a politician of the other party is romping to victory on the very top of the ticket?


I think it's very rare, but it does happen.  What I would have to investigate is exactly how popular Freudenthal is in the state.  And actually, if he were running for Senate, wouldn't he be considered upballot from Trauner anyway?  Maybe I have it reversed.

But of course, he's not running for Senate so it's purely speculative.

I am trying to think of a case where one candidate -- Governor, Senate, House helped candidates lower on the ballot.  Locally, I can think of several.  When Jill Long (Thompson) was our Congresswoman, Democrats usually fared a little better in county and municipal races in her district.  I am certain enthusiasm for Evan Bayh has helped Democratic congressional candidates in Indiana.  The Republicans and Indies who support Bayh -- some of them of course, not all -- have been willing to give people like Joe Donelly and Brad Ellsworth a try.

The question is -- how much of that is Bayh coattail and how much of it is changing demographic, hard work by the House candidate or a screw up by the opposition?  And I don't know the answer.
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