UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[DaWN]

Swinson was okay.

Ian Blackford, who I despise for non-Brexit reasons, is an annoyingly good speaker.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1169720609095462913

Is there any precedent for this?

Do they even have a majority for this? It seems to me that the Conservative Party + the DUP do not have a majority in parliament and if the opposition parties really wanted to, they could vote against the no confidence resolution and deny a majority for that as well. I think it is pretty clear that there is no way Johnson is getting an extension without an extension to Article 50.

It would be the absolute most Brexit-era British politics thing to happen if the government voted against itself and the opposition voted for it in a motion of no confidence.

[DaWN]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

The less we get to hear from Ian Blackford the better.

FTFY

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

I mean, looking at the aggregate of polling instead of 1 poll shows a better picture of the situation. Its not a Lib Dem collapse, per say, but they have certainly declined while Labour has risen.

It's been a fairly minimal decline though and probably attributable to a good couple of weeks for Labour rather than that one event alone - when (not if) Corbyn next sticks his foot in it their numbers may well bounce back up again.

In any case, things were always going to fall a bit for the Lib Dems once the afterglow of the Euros performance disappeared, same with Brexit Party support leaking back to the Tories.

Certainly nothing like some of the predictions in this thread back when it was all going on though - one user unironically said they were going to fall below 2017 levels because of it.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

 

My own view is the LibDems may have got some short term popularity at the cost of longer term problems - but we will likely find out how true (or otherwise) that is before too long

The possibility certainly exists but nobody can do anything other than make a guess on this. And in any case, lets not pretend any of the other parties are playing the long game either. Especially not Labour.

[DaWN]

Even with the convention bounce and YouGov numbers in mind, it still rather disproves the notion I was repeatedly told in this thread a month or so ago that the LD collapse was imminent because they wouldn't make Corbyn PM.

Definite whiff of straw man attached to this post tbh.

Ahem

The danger for the Lib Dems isn't that people who like Corbyn will stop voting for them (which I agree there are very few of) but that those who lent them a vote to stop Brexit think they're blocking an attempt to stop no deal.

For the voters who left Labour to side with the Lib Dems over Brexit, this doesnt look good, and the possibility of defection back to Labour is significant(the rock).

Libdems are a fraud & will from less than 15 seats to less 10 next election

I think everyone is making a fatal flaw in their assumptions here. People who left Labour to the Lib Dems aren't going to like Corbyn... so why would they side with him here?

Because they prioritise stopping no deal. Not exactly difficult to wrap your head round is it

etc., etc.,

Looking at the responses, almost all of them only declare a possible danger, not one that is immediate. The first two speak of a possible danger, and the 4th gives a reason for why such a danger exists. The only one who makes such a declaration that the Lib Dems will fall apart and fail is Shadows, and.....well they're Shadows.

Well, yes, fine, but that is rather quibbling over semantics. The point is I wasn't strawmanning.

[DaWN]

I think my views on Corbyn and Corbyn's Labour have been made very plain and I've never liked Watson. Make of that what you will.

[DaWN]

It's like they're trying to lose.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1175844135582015489

At the moment UK rules on eligibility to vote make little sense.

Indeed, I never quite understood why a Pakistani or Mozambique Citizen in the UK should be able to vote, while a Pole or a Frenchman should not. New Zealand allows this, and it works pretty well there.  
That said, It does rather seem to be changing the rules of the game for partisan advantage, though. Labour would clearly be the beneficiaries of this. And it disincentivizes people from Naturalising and becoming British Citizens.

Given the current situation with Brexit such a big thing, it might actually be the LibDems?

Either way, it certainly wouldn't be the Tories which is why it probably appeals to Labour

[DaWN]

Of course if Britain didn't use FPTP Labour could court a working-class "Brexit-neutral" base, the Lib Dems and Greens and so forth could court committed Europeanists across the left-right spectrum and up and down the class system, and neither would have to worry about producing an artificial Tory landslide by fishing in different pools.

That's probably what's going to happen anyway. Except without the 'not worry about producing an artificial Tory landslide' bit but FPTP is what it is. It (unfortunately) may result in a Tory landslide but then again we don't know how badly the Brexit Party vote will affect them.

Having said that, yeah, the Labour membership's leader-worship is getting seriously creepy.

It'e been that way for years.

[DaWN]

Boris' luck is really something. The news cycle is all about Labour embarrassing themselves at Conference and then suddenly this comes along and puts all the embarrassment onto him. I'd feel sorry for him if it wasn't hilarious. And he wasn't him.

[DaWN]

You know, I'm beginning to get the impression this might not be a very good government

[DaWN]

#JoSwinsonIsATory trends on Twitter after Lib Dems say that they would not vote for Corbyn to become the PM of a government of national unity.

If Twitter Socialists decided anything in British politics, then Labour would have won all 650 constituencies in 2015 and 2017, and being a member of any other party would be illegal.

They don't though. Twitter trends are irrelevant.

[DaWN]

It's a shame portal guns aren't real and we can't get a Jeremy Corbyn from an alternative timeline.

You're going to have to comb through a lot of alternate universes before you find a Jeremy Corbyn that isn't an incompetent, senile buffoon.

[DaWN]

This is a completely pointless argument over a scenario which will never come to play.

It is politically untenable for Labour to accept anyone other than Corbyn as PM. They'd basically be admitting 'our man isn't good enough', and while everyone knows that he isn't good enough, they can't just come out and say it. It would be politically disastrous and basically inviting what remaining voters Labour has to find alternatives. Thus Labour won't accept an alternative.

It is politically untenable for the Liberal Democrats to accept Corbyn as PM. The two main groups of voters that are behind the Lib Dem surge are remainer former Labour voters who hate Corbyn and his Brexit stance, and former Tory voters who have been alienated by Boris but would never vote Labour in a million years. While supporting Corbyn for PM wouldn't be popular with either group, it would particularly alienate the latter who are far more important than the former in terms of getting the LDs more seats. Thus the Lib Dems won't accept Corbyn.

Both parties are making an exceptionally reasonable stance purely based on what is best for them electorally and neither of them are going to budge if the other shouts louder (or in the case of Corbynites, throw a tantrum on Twitter). Thus the 'caretaker PM' is never going to happen and the next change of PM will be after an election or when the Tory party loses confidence in Boris. Discussion otherwise is academic until the next big thing happens.

[DaWN]

"Third way centrism" only failed because of a conservative instigated recession.

And also because Tony Blair wasn't a quarter as clever as he thought he was

[DaWN]

In the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013578

The SNP, you may not be entirely surprised to learn, are being opportunistic, nationalistic crooks and deciding to blackmail the Leader of the Opposition, who no doubt will have the strength and integrity to refuse them hahaha oh dear

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

[DaWN]

In the news today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50013578

The SNP, you may not be entirely surprised to learn, are being opportunistic, nationalistic crooks and deciding to blackmail the Leader of the Opposition, who no doubt will have the strength and integrity to refuse them hahaha oh dear

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

Perhaps I'm misreading but this seems as if she's still in favor of forming an opposition-based GoNU so as to oust BoJo, prevent no-deal, & secure an election, & is referring to the formation of a potential post-election government with regards to her demand.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, though.

Certainly possible, but either way, playing on Corbyn's uselessness to get what she wants is probably a good move for her

[DaWN]

Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?

Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.

Which says a lot about how awful he is that Labour is in the sh!tter despite that

[DaWN]

The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

If you truly believe that's the case then I have a bridge I'd like to sell to you

[DaWN]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

There used to be a great many factions in Labour along the lines you have said

Now there are two: "Corbyn is the second coming of Christ" and "About to be deselected".

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

Whichever is more convenient for them in internal party politics. So the former.

[DaWN]

If BoJo's Brexit deal gets passed, what are the odds that the seemingly inevitable late 2019/early 2020 general election gets cancelled?

It probably happens either way. The current parliamentary arithmetic is ideal for precisely nobody. The only reason the opposition parties were opposed to the election a few weeks back was because it was a blatant attempt to try and sneak through No Deal - once that is removed as a possibility (either by leaving with a deal or leaving without) then their opposition disappears. Probably.

[DaWN]

The current news appears to be that the Lib Dems and the SNP have told Boris that they will agree to his election - but they want it three days earlier so he can't rush through his deal and an extension will have to happen. And also because an election suits both parties very nicely.

The government's reaction to this has been unclear, but at the moment it seems that they're considering their options - Boris wants this election of course (given the state of Labour, who in his position wouldn't?) but a Brexit delay might give The Traitor's vehicle a boost that would complicate matters.

Of course, the FPTA means that Labour still hold the cards here - unless Boris uses his hypothetical 'for an election' majority to scrap the FPTA, which is a realistic option for calling an election while putting the metaphorical (or quite possibly literal) middle finger up at Corbyn, a desire for which is something that the Tories, the Lib Dems and SNP all have in common.

Corbyn's response to this is that he thinks its a stunt (possibly but I can't see any reason why either party wouldn't want an election) and that they should wait to take No Deal off the table (which is exactly what an election and a Brexit delay does). Mostly he's just sh!t scared of an election. Probably.

I suppose we'll find out tomorrow. Four days to go!

[DaWN]

The SNP is seriously making a name for itself. I imagine if they keep this up, they’ll reach their 2015 results, right?

It seems pretty certain that the Tories will lose most of their 2017 gains in Scotland, and likewise the decline of the Tory vote and weakening of unionist tactical voting will sweep away Labour's gains, too. The Lib Dems should hold on to their 2017 gains and maybe make 1-3 more from the SNP, though. So on net the SNP will be slightly below 2015 but probably still above 50 seats. I would predict 51 seats for the SNP, to pull a number slightly from the air.

They'll certainly take North East Fife which the SNP only held by 2 votes last time, but after that their targets dry up. The next one on the list is Ross, Skye and Lochaber, which is Ian Blackford's seat which (among other reasons) therefore makes it unlikely (although certainly something I'd like to happen). Other than that the majorities become too big and the territory not friendly enough unless the Lib Dems have a very, VERY big surge, which north of the border at least looks unlikely.

I agree with the rest of your analysis, although I think the Tories will probably hold on to 3-4 of their current seats. Unfortunate as the SNP remain as awful and despicable as ever, but when the two main British parties are as awful as they are, I can hardly blame the people of Scotland for voting for the alternative.

-

In other news, Labour appear to be staking a Remain position for the election, despite having spent the last two and a half years obsessively chasing a hard Brexit. Unfortunately, its a tactic that will almost certainly work and keep them most/all of their vulnerable remainy seats. Then, after the election, when they get right back to work enabling Brexit, everyone will scratch their heads wondering how on earth that could have happened. There's almost a poetry to it.

[DaWN]

LibDems refusing to compromise on the date, apparently.

Whats the big deal between Holding an election Dec 9th vs holding it on Dec 10th

Boris' date is the 12th not the 9th. And that extra 3 days are days he could use to push his deal through before the election.

If it seems that the Johnson bill that is identical to the  SNP/LDEM plan of Dec 9 is passed then the optics becomes very bad for LAB.  The election will be about an election that LAB is too chicken to participate in but everyone else then wanted anyway.  In fact that might be be impetus for LAB to perhaps agreed to pass Johnson's plan to go into the election with the Brexit plan passed and not Brexit still not delivered.

In terms of electoral performance, I highly doubt this will make any difference.