MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/03/20/senate-poll-hogan-trone-alsobrooks/

I want to believe…

[Roll Roons]

Everyone on here is pointing to previous races which is a valid argument but I don't think this race is Safe D anymore. However, I find it fascinating that all the red avatars conveniently learned their lesson after Bullock 2020 just in time for Hogan's entry. I remember there were posts saying that the Bredesen/Bayh comparisons were unwaranted and that Bullock was special and could pull it off. Sure, Hogan is the heavy underdog, but comparing to Bullock of all people doesn't make sense.

Even with Bredesen, people said it was different from Bayh because Bayh became a DC lobbyist after leaving the Senate and spent virtually no time in Indiana.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

[Roll Roons]

Btw, I actually ran into Hogan's pollster at a bar earlier this week. Obviously he's biased, but he thinks Hogan's lead is real, although he certainly won't win by 16.

Thinking about it, there actually is no recent 1-1 precedent for a situation like this. It's still much more likely than not that Hogan loses, but there is an opening.

This is the exact same mindset the people here adopted for MT 2020 and TN 2018 lol.

I don’t understand why we keep making this mistake.

Again, I don't think Hogan is favored at all.

But unlike Bullock, he isn't running against an incumbent. Bullock's presidential run also hurt him by making it easier to portray him as a national Democrat, while Hogan is vocally anti-Trump.

Bredesen had been out of office for nearly a decade when he ran for Senate, and Hogan will have only been out of office for two years.