Is there any outside chance this seat is competitive? Went from Trump + 16.5 to Trump + 7.8, and in 2022 Schmitt only barely carried the seat by 3%. There's a small but realistic chance Biden carries the seat Presidentially in 2024, especially given nearly 50% of the population in the seat has college. However, there def seems to be some downballot lag at play here; Wagner carried the seat by double-digits in 2022. Still, relative to her past performances in a less favorable district, that win is underwhelming, and some of that crossover support could erode since it's now an open seat.
My rating would probably be likely R.
I don't think the seat is competitive this year. Wagner did win by 12 even as Schmitt only won the seat by 3, so clearly she either has some personal crossover appeal, benefits from downballot lag or some of both. Either way, it should be enough to keep her in the clear. But if Trump wins, this seat will be very competitive in 2026.
