Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1747044231691026865
Meaning: no delays because of untested apps made by shady companies.

[Roll Roons]

Haley now leads in a second county, Story just north of Polk.

Another college county.

[Roll Roons]

CNN has DeSantis in the lead in Sioux County in the northwest.

Didn't see that CNN one... if so could indicate Trump underperforming a bit in the NW IA "Bible Belt".

It's a fairly narrow lead (7% and 23 votes over Trump), so it could flip over to Trump in later updates, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Another dump from Lyon County (furthest northwest in the state) has Trump only up by 8 over DeSantis. I guess the Vanderplaats endorsement did sway a decent number of voters.

[Roll Roons]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

[Roll Roons]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim...?

Who has the state Democratic party unanimously coalesced around?

[Roll Roons]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

What state are you from and who's the frontrunner to be its next Senator?

Andy Kim...?

Who has the state Democratic party unanimously coalesced around?

That's a different question than frontrunner, lol. Kim is leading Tammy in polling by 20 point margins so far (albeit most of them internals).

Yeah, primary internals are often unreliable, especially with very few people paying attention. I'm not betting against the Line until I see a concrete reason to.

[Roll Roons]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current general numbers are fiction.

They're not fiction; they're a snapshot in time.

Of course.

But it's borderline negligible for Dems to act like Biden is currently in a good position.

*Negligent

Who is arguing that though?

wbrocks67

He nailed the midterms, I'm inclined to trust him.

This is true, everyone, myself included thought he was too optimistic but he was pretty much dead on.

How’d he do in 2020?

He predicted Biden would win FL :


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410005.msg7721501#msg7721501

He also said Biden had a better chance of winning a landslide than Trump had of winning

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409640.msg7718459#msg7718459

He was also very insistent that Brian Fitzpatrick was extremely vulnerable, although he seems to have some kind of personal hatred for Fitzpatrick.

[Roll Roons]

Besides Johnson, looks like Trump underperformed his statewide vote share in Polk, Dallas, Story. Exactly where I'd expect. Any other counties I'm missing?