NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/11/new-jersey-gop-statehouse-control-00120417

Apparently Republicans are actually feeling surprisingly optimistic while a lot of Democrats are nervous.

Now, I remember Democrats felt optimistic about picking up seats in 2019 and failed to flip any, so conventional wisdom has been wrong in this state before. But it’s still worth making a note of.

[Roll Roons]

The Dems just didn't want to go for the North Jersey Biden/R districts. To be fair, the incumbents are very strong RINOs. Overall, I don't think more than a half-dozen assembly and two Senate seats flip and it's very possible nothing flips either way. Dems are not losing LD-16, this is not 2014 and Biden won it by 20.

I don’t know if I’d use the descriptor RINO. My district was ultra-marginal in 2020 (Trump+1) and my state Senator was Trump’s NJ campaign chair.

He's probably referring to the Republicans in LD-21, who may be the most moderate Republican state legislators in the country.

[Roll Roons]

Head of polling at FDU:
https://twitter.com/DanCassino/status/1714012689641402424

[Roll Roons]

Ah yes, a PPP poll commissioned by the state teachers union. A totally unbiased and accurate source that we should totally trust, right?

[Roll Roons]

It's still unlikely that Democrats will actually lose their legislative majorities, but by God if they aren't trying: https://twitter.com/News12NJ/status/1716813057316511789
Even Murphy came out against this.

[Roll Roons]

It's still unlikely that Democrats will actually lose their legislative majorities, but by God if they aren't trying: https://twitter.com/News12NJ/status/1716813057316511789
Even Murphy came out against this.

Who the hell is against Halloween? Only people I can think of that would have an issue with it are very religious. Are there any demographic peculiarities in this area?

What a twisted move.

No, both Maplewood and South Orange are majority white but with sizable black populations. They both have very high rates of college education and are decently affluent, though not as much as places like Short Hills to their west. I think they're just uber woke.

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/biden-underwater-in-new-jersey-poll-people-still-like-cory-booker/

Per Stockton, Biden’s approval in NJ is underwater by 16 points, including 29 with independents.

[Roll Roons]

If Durr loses, I don’t think it would be accurate to call his 2021 victory a fluke. If anything, we could say his initial victory was indicative of a long-term rightward trend in the region that just happened to be interrupted because of his unique vulnerabilities. Rod Blum is the best parallel I can think of.

[Roll Roons]

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/state-government/offshore-wind-in-new-jersey-is-off-as-orsted-drops-out/

The offshore wind project that was a big campaign issue in two coastal districts (LDs 2 and 11) has been canceled. Democrats were betting big on this one.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.insidernj.com/r-e-poll-whats-most-important-to-new-jersey-voters-on-election-day/

Per the final Rutgers poll, the issues voters care most about are the economy, cost of living and taxes. Democrats care a lot about abortion and Republicans care a lot about parental rights in education, while independents are evenly split on both of those.

[Roll Roons]

Abortion
59% overall ‘major factor’
79% among Ds, 51% among Is, 38% among Rs

Parental involvement in education
47% overall ‘major factor’
37% among Ds, 46% among Is, 70% among Rs

So looks like mirror opposites a bit, esp since there is more Ds in the state. However abortion is a bit stronger for Ds than Parental rights for Rs, and abortion has a minor edge among Indies.

Not quite what I was asking. The question is how those who find the issue important actually feel about it. I dug through the release and it says that abortion splits 46-21 in favor of proponents while the parental notification issue splits 38-17 the “other” way.

But it doesn’t narrow that to just those motivated by the respective issues. It’s my educated guess that the opposition to parental rights is softer than opposition to abortion. (Support may be softer too, but I’m guessing by a smaller margin.) But without a breakdown, all we have is assumption.

Best to just stick to the headline, which is a solid D lead hovering around 50%.

If you dig in, the crosstabs look far too favorable to Democrats across the board for the generic ballot poll. It could be something like 52-48 like it was in 2021.

[Roll Roons]

Is this guy who won the Lakewood Assembly seat an actual Democrat or is he a Simcha Felder-like DINO?

The latter.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1722767397277327734
The guru of NJ politics thinks Rs will still hold that seat in a squeaker, but this still shouldn't have been close.