2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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Something to watch: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704962326833561850

Baird is pretty old so it wouldn’t surprise me.

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https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1708519454357754078
That honestly seems like a fairly underwhelming number. Kean will probably raise at least twice as much.

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News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

I think it definitely helped Salazar in FL and Hinson in IA

Eric Sorensen in IL was a TV meteorologist and a certain someone who shall not be named probably wouldn’t have come as close as she did in AZ if she hadn’t been a longtime TV anchor.

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D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

Even if McCarthy was resigning (which he denied), Trump got over 60% here. It would not come close to flipping.

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1712926500226474332
Could be something to watch, with or without redistricting.

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1713607786653982994
He's obviously beyond DOA, but a part of me will miss the comic relief that he brings.

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Summary of Q3 fundraising for vulnerable incumbents:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1713754343789531183

Again, worth noting that 20 House Republicans in battleground districts raised over $500K, while only 12 battleground district Democrats did so.

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1713931952594764238

He’s unlikely to win, but if he runs a strong campaign he could come closer than O’Halleran did. Also Crane is the type of candidate I can potentially see a Boebert-style collapse for. That being said he’s fairly uncontroversial for a hardcore Trumper, and I have a feeling he’ll run against Mark Kelly in 2028.

Crane could definitely go down if he’s asleep at the wheel and it isn’t too Republican a year.

Do you think Prescott will shift left? I feel like that's probably what it would take for Democrats to actually win this seat.

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Don't know anything about Bell, but he can't be worse than Bush.

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Don’t see Bell doing much better than Steve Roberts. I don’t know anyone who’d vote for Cori Bush in 2022 but not 2024.

Ilhan Omar won her primary in a landslide in 2020 and nearly lost in 2022. What changed for her in between?

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State Sen. John McGuire might primary Bob Good: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2023/11/03/congress/good-challenger-00125250

Just imagine it: Good loses the primary/convention, Boebert loses the general, Rosendale runs for Senate and loses either the primary or the general, Santos loses worse than Liz Cheney, Gaetz runs for Governor in 2026 and faceplants.

The best part would be if the RPV basically rigs the convention against Good in the way that it was rigged against Denver Riggleman.

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Latimer officially filed for NY-16: https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1731720963728024055

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https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

I feel like VA-02 and NJ-07 are the most glaring recruitment failures for House Democrats. Doesn’t mean either of them can’t lose, but the fields in both races look pretty underwhelming.

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https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1740537436210663772

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Has… anything like this ever happened before?
https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1747720686003478760

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1750979760396869986
Hahahahahaha

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

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Is it fair to call Bob Good an underdog? He pissed off Trumpworld by endorsing DeSantis and he pissed off the normie Rs by being one of the “Gaetz eight.”

I get the impression that McGuire is very conservative and pretty Trumpy but wouldn’t be a troublemaker for the sake of it like Good.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4445124-cori-bush-jamaal-bowman-squad-israel-primary/

Cori Bush was outraised by Wesley Bell and Jamaal Bowman was outraised by George Latimer. Fits with my belief that these two are the most vulnerable Squad members.

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https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1754905688113836418?s=46

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I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

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https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

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The actual changes are that NY-03 went from Lean D to Likely D and NY-22 went from Tossup to Lean D. Reasonable, though I may have also moved NY-04 to Lean D.

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https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

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https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.