TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Roll Roons]

How is freshman representative Greg Cesar as a possible nominee? 

I’m pretty sure he’s Squad-adjacent so he’d be a complete nonstarter.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1652029715375333377?s=20

I hope it’s what I think it is, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s just rebranding for re-election to the House

Honestly, while I certainly won’t complain if Allred is the nominee, I don’t think he’s the right guy for this race.  I think we’re better off running Roland Gutierrez.  While both would obviously be underdogs (to say the least), I think he would have a better chance of pulling off the upset than Allred.

One of the biggest issues is money. We need a candidate that can easily break into nine-figures when all is said and done. That's basically the bare minimum to take out Cruz in a hideously expensive state. (Beto raised $80m in his campaign for Senate.) Of course, one thing to note is that the Texas Senate is one of only two legislative bodies in the country that have larger districts than their respective Congressional districts (the other being the California Senate). So, Gutierrez actually represents more people than Allred. I don't pretend to know who the best candidate is, but we really need to put this seat into play.

Unless the Democratic nominee ends up being a murderer or pedophile, I don't think they would have much trouble fundraising. No matter what, small dollar donors from around the country will be motivated to beat Ted Cruz. Look at how much Marcus Flowers or Amy McGrath raised in completely hopeless races. 

[Roll Roons]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

Even if it's a longshot for Allred, it's still within the realm of possibility that he wins. If he wins, he would for sure be an instant top contender for president or vice president. Maybe he thinks it's worth it for that alone.

[Roll Roons]

If I understand correctly, the moment Texas turns democrat it's game over for the republicans right ?

This is undoubtedly true at the Presidential level.  Republicans have no reasonable paths to a victory without Texas.

Yeah, if Texas goes blue there's almost no way Arizona and Georgia don't. Without those three states, the absolute Republican ceiling is 262: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ZWbQQ

[Roll Roons]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/08/16/could_ted_cruz_lose_reelection_149629.html

Sean Trende's argument for why Cruz might be in more trouble than people think.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/SollenbergerRC/status/1713658082142691614

I knew it from the start. Being the Democrat running against Ted Cruz was always going to make Allred a magnet for #resistance types.

[Roll Roons]

At the House level, it basically was as R as Florida.

There were six seats where no Democrat ran, but Republicans fielded candidates in every district. If you're talking about aggregate house popular vote, you do have to account for that.