2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Roll Roons]

Texas is fairly quick at counting votes, right?

[Roll Roons]

I've seen enough, Abbott wins without a runoff. So does O'Rourke.

[Roll Roons]

Wow:
https://twitter.com/jaspscherer/status/1498829764060188682?cxt=HHwWlMC4mdbu9MwpA...

Collins was endorsed by MTG, so yeah. This is a good thing.

[Roll Roons]

Harris County drops George P Bush to 3rd place.

West Texas will make or break him.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1498834920550154242?cxt=HHwWhIC-hema98w...

[Roll Roons]

Nathaniel Moran is expected to win in the First District: "Moran is going to replace a moron."

Incidentally, Moran appears to be much less of a moron than the man he'll replace.

[Roll Roons]

Based on what I can see from DDHQ, it actually seems like Taylor will probably avoid a runoff by the skin of his teeth. They have 86% reporting.

[Roll Roons]

Based on what I can see from DDHQ, it actually seems like Taylor will probably avoid a runoff by the skin of his teeth. They have 86% reporting.

86% reporting with Van Taylor at 51% and his % going down every time its updated... idk will be close either way

Taylor is holding steady with 96% now in. I think he's got this, but he got a real scare and he's very lucky that the affair rumors didn't come out earlier.

[Roll Roons]

It also looks like incumbent Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian will get held to a runoff, probably with Sarah Stogner, who (in)famously went topless in an ad.

[Roll Roons]

Don’t think Taylor is out of the woods yet.

Yeah, it's coming down to the wire. Pure tossup as to whether or not he avoids a runoff.

[Roll Roons]

What happened with Taylor? It can't just be his votes to certify the election/establish a commission because Tony Gonzales voted the exact same way on both things and he's totally fine.

[Roll Roons]

Probably can't be called just yet, but Houchin is also looking like a clear favorite in IN-09.

[Roll Roons]

I couldn’t care less who wins in West Virginia as the winner will win by 1.5 million votes, but Wasserman doesn’t need to throw a passive aggressive temper tantrum about it by repeatedly calling him Trump-endorsed lol.

Also I imagine people will call them dumb for voting against their own interests so can we skip that part?

Wasserman wants Trump back.

[Roll Roons]

Bacon's a great dude, he won't lose.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1524207778922844160

[Roll Roons]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

Yeah, I don't think Nebraska is a big VBM state. I think Lindstrom's early lead was because of in-person early voting.

[Roll Roons]

Irwin leading Lee 51-31 in PA-12 on NYT.

Keep him away from stingrays...

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1526723470687617025?cxt=HHwWgoCyyYu6gbAqAA...

[Roll Roons]

I'm thinking Edwards wins: https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1526726808397389825?cxt=HHwWgoC9ua_8gr...

[Roll Roons]

There are apparently some outstanding early votes in Lancaster and elsewhere that should help McCormick.

The mail vote in PA is like 90% Democratic, it's not going to have much of any impact in the Republican primary.

In a race this close, it will probably be make or break.

[Roll Roons]

McCormick just gained a few votes, cutting his deficit from 2741 to 2686. Not sure where those came from.

[Roll Roons]

Just occurred to me that Cawthorn being ousted means AOC will be the youngest House member again, correct?

There are a couple possible candidates who are younger - Bo Hines in NC-13, Matthew Foldi in MD-06 and Karoline Leavitt in NH-01.

[Roll Roons]

I don't think we even need to wait for Wasserman as far as Governor goes. I've seen enough, Kemp wins.

[Roll Roons]

Will Raffensperger stay above 50%

He actually might. Apparently there's no significant difference in voting patterns between early and election day votes.

[Roll Roons]

80% in, Raff is still above 50 and election day votes aren't breaking against him. I've seen enough. God bless Georgia.