What are the chances that Cawthorn eventually becomes Dean of the House?
Unlikely. He's almost certainly either running for Governor in 2024/2028, or running for the Senate as soon as he's eligible and a seat is open (so maybe 2026, or 2028?).
This is true. Mark Walker, who's running for the Senate next year, was photographed with Cawthorn a few weeks ago and touted his endorsement. For that matter-and this is on a tangent-who is likely to become the next Dean of the House when Young dies (as he's never going to retire or lose reelection). Will it be Chris Smith?
Almost certainly. Smith's district is already pretty Republican, and he's personally popular, running around 10 points ahead of Trump. By all accounts, he loves his job and won't retire anytime soon. He's technically behind Hal Rogers in seniority, but Rogers is 16 years older than him, so he'll retire or die way before Smith does.
