2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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I love how Democrats keep shooting themselves in the foot: https://www.axios.com/cori-bush-defund-police-2022-midterms-f78a07b5-40ae-42e2-ba0e-e50d205a1dd9.html

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https://twitter.com/JimJusticeWV/status/1493968656958517249
Justice is very popular, so this is a big deal.

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Congressman Tom Kean, here we come!

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It’s a little odd to me how many people disapprove of Feinstein simply because she is old.

She's also very clearly losing her mental faculties and a lot of the state's left wingers probably see her as too moderate.

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Looks like Upton is running again: https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1496175307606351884

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I'm assuming he's running for the new 4th?

If he survives the primary safe R. If he loses around likely R give or take depending upon the "sanity" of the Republican candidate.

Yeah, he's running in the 4th. Huizenga is a pretty generic R and should be able to hold it except maybe in a big blue wave, but I think an MTG type would definitely struggle most of the time. 

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https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1496577073669881859

Meuser running in PA-09, not against Cartwright.

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Former State House speaker Beth Harwell IN for the new TN-05:https://twitter.com/tnnaterau/status/1496833665036431367

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https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1498423296718782470?cxt=HHwWjIC-wZSDvM...
I know he's pretty new but I completely forgot that there was a member of Congress named Fred Keller.

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DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

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Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

Yeah. That's the biggest problem with this poll...

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I actually wonder if Cawthorn could be in more trouble in his primary than people seem to think: https://twitter.com/SenThomTillis/status/1504504376223846402?cxt=HHwWhMC-vcmwieE...

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https://twitter.com/ColtonLochhead/status/1504947897871187971

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Journalist/GOP operative Matthew Foldi is running in the newly competitive MD-06: https://freebeacon.com/elections/former-free-beacon-journo-matthew-foldi-launches-congressional-campaign/

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President Biden has a 70 % Disapproval Rating in Michigan according to a new EPIC-MRA Poll

https://www.wlns.com/news/local-news/poll-michigan-residents-want-roe-v-wade-to-stand/

Michigans want Roe vs Wade to stand by a large margin but that has no bearings at Bidens JA.

If the 70 % Disapproval Number is even close to be accurate the Election is over folks.

I believe this, but can't open the file because I'm in Italy right now.

Haven’t you repeatedly said that US Citizens would never be allowed to travel abroad again?

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I don't agree with PA-07 being Lean R. Even in this environment, Wild is a strong incumbent and Scheller already lost in 2020 and nearly lost her primary this year to an unknown opponent despite having unlimited cash

Under the new Redistricting Lines drawn PA-7 is waaay more Republican compared to 2020. You have to take this into account too.

It's only Trump by a few points isn't it? Where it was Biden by a few in 2020? I don't think it changed that dramatically where it still wouldn't be a toss-up. This is a tough year for Wild in a semi-tougher district but Scheller is not a great candidate.

Wishcast all you want but she has an unexceptional electoral history in a very close district in a year that will favor the GOP. Scheller may not be amazing either but it’s not like she’s Mastriano. Do the math.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541900609187635201

Even with Dobbs, I wonder if PA-12 could be closer than expected just because of the people who vote for Republican Mike Doyle and think they're voting for the retiring incumbent.

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Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

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Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

Foldi has been endorsed by Hogan and McCarthy.

Admittedly, I'm biased since I'm friends with Foldi and volunteering on his campaign. But he is working the district extremely hard while Parrott is barely campaigning. I think Foldi's youthfulness will prove to be a good contrast to Trone in the general.

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^That tweet is incorrect, Cook actually moved five seats all in favor of Democrats. Here is the full list of rating changes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1555551014576693249

No, OR-04 and OR-06 were moved in favor of Republicans.

Still, that doesn't really square up. It seems that NE-02 was moved because Wasserman thinks abortion will hurt Bacon, but you'd think it would also be a detriment to Republicans in both of those Oregon seats.

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House Majority PAC (Dems) dropping $20M on TV ads across the country:
https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1555544711041110016

Albany: NY-19
Binghamton: NY-19
Boston: NH-01 and NH-02
Champaign: IL-13
Chicago: IL-06 and IN-01
Cincy: OH-01
Cleveland: OH-13
Fresno: CA-13 and CA-22
Grand Rapids: MI-03
Greenville (NC): NC-01
Harlingen: TX-15
Hartford: CT-05
Laredo: TX-28
LA: CA-27, CA-45, CA-47 and possibly CA-40 and CA-41
Minneapolis: MN-02
NYC: NJ-07
Norfolk: VA-02
San Antonio: TX-28
Seattle: WA-08
St. Louis: IL-13
Syracuse: NY-22
Toledo: OH-09
Utica: NY-22

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https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1558471549115633665

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1562871178305212420?cxt=HHwWiMC...

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https://www.axios.com/2022/08/29/kevin-mccarthy-pac-ads

CLF dropping $37M, mostly on offense.

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Sabato shifting AZ and PA Senate from Tossup to Lean D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-rating-changes-arizona-pennsylvania-to-leans-democratic/