2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Roll Roons]

Is it possible to do a 4-4 or even 5R-3D map without baconstrips? Geography is absolutely horrible for Wisconsin Democrats.

[Roll Roons]

If Dems had any bargaining power here (they don’t) they would be smart to try to make WI-1 closer while triaging WI-3.

1. Dems do have bargaining power. Evers still has a veto power on the map until and unless the Courts say otherwise, and it's far from certain that they will.

2. Triaging WI-3 would be beyond idiotic. This isn't f**king Appalachian Ohio we're talking about for crying out loud, it's still perfectly winnable for the right Democrat in the right cycle.

Also if I were a Democrat and had to pick between having Bryan Steil or Derrick Van Orden in Congress, I know which one I'd take in a heartbeat.

[Roll Roons]

Is the new WI-01 trending D? 538 says it's R+6 but they usually go to the right of the 2020 result. Could this be up for grabs in 2024 or a 2026 R midterm?

Idk if it's trending D, but it's only about Trump +2. Definitely a possible target in the future.

[Roll Roons]

How exactly do you get a clean map with more than two Biden seats?

[Roll Roons]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/12/vos-pushes-for-new-electoral-maps-to-bypass-liberal-court/70835377007/

MADISON - Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is backing off threats of impeaching the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice and is instead deploying a new maneuver to avoid having the liberal-controlled court weigh in on the state's electoral maps: writing new ones.

After previously opposing such plans for years, Vos and Assembly Republicans announced Tuesday they would pursue legislation this week that seeks to use "an Iowa-style nonpartisan redistricting" model that would allow the nonpartisan Legislative Reference Bureau to write new legislative maps instead of partisans.

The move is aimed at bypassing lawsuits before the state Supreme Court that seek to rewrite the current GOP-favorable maps that were adopted in 2021.

Devil is the details and they are not releasing any details so I'm mighty suspicious.  What do they mean by "Iowa-style"? At a congressional level "Iowa-style" would not work because you will have to split counties because Milwaukee County is > than the ideal CD population.

I am in favor of a non partisan body drawing the maps even though in a state like Wisconsin that gives Republicans an advantage due to how the population is distributed.

Presumably it means a nonpartisan agency/computer draws the map and the legislature can approve or reject it.

[Roll Roons]

The State Leg maps are clearly gerrymanders. Bigger question is the fix to draw partisan blind maps, or maps aimed at producing a partisan equitable outcome.

I think a partisan-blind map is the best way to do it. A district that is competitive now might not be at the end of the decade, and vice versa.