2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Roll Roons]

Apparently this is the first draft: https://redistricting.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=ce93c91276654cbcb0cb9acf2f5a39b7

Really not that aggressive.

[Roll Roons]

So why is it that the FL map was so much tamer than NC or OH?

[Roll Roons]

Well, I really wanted to put Disney World into a GOP district: https://davesredistricting.org/join/3acbbb79-415c-4a77-89f7-15b9c27af38b

So I gave it to the Lakeland-based FL-28 and tweaked some of the other Central FL districts to adjust for population.

[Roll Roons]

So either way, it's clear that the Florida GOP isn't going balls to the wall with redistricting. They could have chopped up FL-05, FL-07 and probably reduced Dems to one seat in the Tampa/St. Pete area.

[Roll Roons]

I'm honestly really confused about what the GOP's goal is in Tampa. All 3 of those seats in all the maps went for Biden, probably by lean-likely margins meaning while they could clean-sweep Tampa in 2022, it offers a good chance Dems a good chance for 3 Tampa seats, and more often than not I'd expect Dems to hold at least 2 of the 3 seats. is it for competitiveness? Do they believe that they'll start outright winning Hilsboro County?

Trying to avoid a lawsuit I guess? Hillsborough County's overall margin has been very static over the past four election cycles, even though the internal coalitions have changed a bit.

[Roll Roons]

I'm genuinely surprised that none of these maps have Disney World or Mar-A-Lago going into Republican districts. I guess the latter is tougher to do than the former, but still.

[Roll Roons]

From eyeballing it, these would probably be my initial ratings for these seats.

Safe R:
FL-01 (Gaetz, ugh), FL-02 (Dunn), FL-03 (Cammack), FL-04 (Rutherford), FL-06 (Waltz), FL-08 (Posey), FL-11 (Webster), FL-12 (Bilirakis), FL-16 (Buchanan), FL-17 (Steube), FL-18 (Mast), FL-19 (Donalds), FL-25 (Diaz-Balart), FL-28 (Franklin)

Likely R: FL-26 (Gimenez)

Lean R: FL-27 (Salazar)

Tossup: FL-13 (Open), FL-15 (Open)

Lean D: FL-07 (Open)

Likely D: FL-09 (Soto), FL-14 (Castor), FL-21 (Frankel)

Safe D: FL-05 (Lawson), FL-10 (Open), FL-20 (Cherfilus-McCormick), FL-22 (Deutch), FL-23 (Wasserman Schultz), FL-24 (Wilson)

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1482875844787781634

I highly doubt they blow up FL-05 at the very least.

[Roll Roons]

New state House map: https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1491886075375087616

Keeps FL-05, FL-07 is made considerably more R by losing all of Orange and being pushed up to Daytona Beach, FL-13 includes all of St. Pete. Alachua is also cracked.

[Roll Roons]

It seems the congressional maps are the prime area of contention between Governor DeSantis and the Republican legislature -and not the legislative maps.

I know I posed this question once before, but with redistricting all but over (at least at the legislative level), how likely is it that Republicans will regain their 80+ majorities in the Florida House that they once enjoyed during the Jeb Bush years (at least in his second term)?

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Florida

The legislative maps have been enacted. It's the congressional maps that they're still fighting over.

[Roll Roons]

What kind of sucks is no matter what, you have to do something a bit geographically awkward to achieve a black opportunity seat in north Florida. The old FL-05 config that connects Jacksonville and Tallahassee if obviously just a long district, and while a Jacksonville based district in itself may seem compact, it forces a 2nd wrap around district that's a bit awkward.

If it were up to me, I'd just go for the Jacksonville based district, even if it's black % is a bit lower. At this point, it should still be enough to be functional and the black population in Jacksonville is growing overall, plus it sets an easier precedent for the future of a functional minority Jacksonville based seat.

I'm curious if by 2030, assuming there's no major federal or state redistricting reform and Rs still control the pen in FL, if they might just cede a Jacksonville based seat due to growth and shifts and Ds generally gaining ground

Yeah. Jacksonville is one of the few places in Florida where Democrats are making gains, or at least not losing ground. DeSantis's margins in Duval, Clay, Nassau and St. John's Counties in 2022 were basically the same as Rick Scott's in 2014, despite the former doing nearly 20 points better statewide.