2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

Cook Political Report moves SC-Sen from Likely to Lean R.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-likely-lean-republican

And they still haven't moved CO out of tossup.

[Roll Roons]

Funny thing is that no matter who wins, FL-19 will be on its fourth rep in a decade.

[Roll Roons]

MA-04 Democratic Primary (Data for Progress)

Auchincloss 14%
Grossman 13%
Mermell 13%
Leckey 9%
Linos 9%
Khazei 7%
Sigel 3%
Zannetos 1%
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/8/primary_polling/dfp_ma-4.pdf#page=2

Isn't Auchincloss basically a Republican?

How is he "basically Republican"? He seems like a clone of Seth Moulton to me - Harvard-educated Marine who's certainly more moderate than the likes of Warren or Pressley, but hardly a Manchin or Lipinski type.

[Roll Roons]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

[Roll Roons]

Thanks you two!

I really hope they're buying in TX-24 and/or elsewhere in the Dallas metro. TX-23 is important too, but it's such low-hanging fruit that I somewhat worry that the DCCC sees it as the only Texas district worth serious spending (Besides some minimal buys in the 10th & 22nd)

If anything, I can see TX-24 becoming a seat that the parties significantly reduce their spending in the fall. This district voted to the left of the state (in some cases by not-insignificant margins) in pretty much every statewide race in 2018 - most notably in the Senate election where Beto O'Rourke won by 3.5% - 6% to the left of the state. It also should be noted that this seat was heavily overlooked in 2018 at the House level and it ended up being close anyways. Jan McDowell only raised like $100K (or something pitifully low like that) for the entire cycle and ended up getting closer to winning than Siegel and Kulkarni (who both raised more money than her and got at least some attention from the national party).

Essentially, based on fundamentals alone this seat will flip if Texas is remotely competitive at the presidential level and the Democrats have a credible candidate (which it is and they do).

Of the competitive Texas races, I would say that 23 is Likely D, 24 is Lean D, and 10, 21, and 22 are the top-tier competitive races that are varying levels of tossups. I'm not convinced that the seats on the outer level of competitiveness (2, 3, 6, 25, 31) are going to flip, but I won't discount a potential upset.

TX-10 should go behind behind the other two. McCaul is decently strong and personally very wealthy, while Siegel is a weaker candidate than Davis or Kulkarni. I'm pretty sure he's a Berniecrat, which I doubt plays well in what is still a fairly Republican-leaning district.

LOL this meme needs to die. McCaul won by only 4 points in the district even though dems spent no money here. Cruz didn't win the district and I expect to be even worse for the more unpopular Trump. Siegel isn't the best candidate but from what we've seen candidate quality doesn't matter in these suburban districts. If Trump does worse then Cruz I don't see how McCaul wins

He seems to be taking the race more seriously this time, and will almost certainly run ahead of Trump. Also bear in mind that Davis, Kulkarni and Valenzuela are all part of DCCC's Red to Blue program, while Siegel isn't.

[Roll Roons]

NY-23
Global Strategy Group (D)
July 23-26

Reed (R, inc.) 50%
Mitrano (D) 38%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200825_NY.pdf

Safe R race is Safe R. Especially in this district where college student turnout will likely be lower than usual.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/31/house-democrats-super-pac-ads-405557

House Majority PAC (D) adding $11M in new reservations:
— Atlanta: $1.3 million (GA-06, GA-07)
— Bakersfield, Calif.: $75,000 (CA-21)
— Binghamton, N.Y.: $65,000 (NY-22)
— Cedar Rapids, Iowa: $300,000 (IA-01)
— Cincinnati: $1 million (OH-01)
— Fresno, Calif.: $100,000 (CA-21)
— Indianapolis: $1 million (IN-05)
— La Crosse, Wis.: $175,000 (WI-03)
— Los Angeles: $3.2 milion (CA-25, CA-39, CA-48)
— Mankato, Minn.: $200,000 (MN-01)
— New York City: $120,000 (NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11)
— Philadelphia: $1.3 million (NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
— Rochester, Minn.: $300,000 (MN-01)
— Salt Lake City: $340,000 (UT-04)
— Savannah, Ga.: $315,000 (SC-01)
— St. Louis: $1.3 million (IL-13, MO-02)
— Utica, N.Y.: $135,000 (NY-22)

[Roll Roons]

Chamber of Commerce is endorsing a bunch of House Democrats, including several vulnerable freshmen:

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1300798594660945920

[Roll Roons]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

What was the aggregate for these seats in 2018?

[Roll Roons]

Politico also came out with House and Senate rating changes today. Predictably for this cycle, most of them are in favor of Dems. 

House leftward:
AK-AL (Likely R to Lean)
AZ-06 (Lean R to Tossup)
CA-03, CA-24, CA-31 and CA-36 (All Likely D to Safe)
CA-39 (Tossup to Lean D)
CO-03 (Likely R to Lean)
CT-02 (Likely D to Safe)
GA-06 (Tossup to Lean D)
IN-05 (Lean R to Tossup)
KS-02 (Likely R to Lean)
MI-08 (Tossup to Lean D)
MT-AL (Likely R to Lean)
NE-01 (Safe R to Likely)
NE-02 (Lean R to Tossup)
NJ-02 (Lean R to Tossup)
NY-02 and NY-24 (Lean R to Tossup)
NC-11 (Safe R to Likely)
OH-10 and OH-12 (Both Likely R to Lean)
SC-02 (Safe R to Likely)
WA-10 (Likely D to Safe)

House rightward:
FL-25 (Likely R to Safe)
FL-26 (Lean D to Tossup)
IA-02 (Lean D to Tossup)
WA-03 (Lean R to Likely)

Senate:
CO (Tossup to Lean D)
KS (Likely R to Lean)
SC (Likely R to Lean)
TN (Likely R to Safe)

[Roll Roons]

Cook just made an extremely bold ratings change:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1308743604249268224

Long overdue.

[Roll Roons]

^LOL MN-01

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1310639318281711616?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Hagedorn won by 1500 votes and isn’t very strong. Why would Democrats not contest it? And there’s no indication of Kinzinger being in trouble at all, but no reason for him not to cover his bases.

[Roll Roons]

Where is all this money even coming from?

Also who does everyone think will be the top fundraiser among House GOP challengers? My guess is either Kean, Gimenez or Hunt.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/TonyGonzales4TX/status/1311677427240906752

Tony Gonzales in TX-23 apparently raised over $1M in Q3. Seems like even some Republicans might be doing well.

[Roll Roons]

Monmouth is releasing a poll of NJ-02 on Monday: https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1312084079991545856

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1313107951742341121

Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.

I think Bice is the one who broke OK records

And it’s not great that she raised less than a no name challenger in TX-02

Of course, that no-name challenger is also taking on a polarizing political figure who galvanizes a particular segment of the Democratic base (Dan Crenshaw) - which explains some of the high amounts of money for his opponent. It seems like we have reached a weird point where $1M is seen as a subpar fundraising total when it is still a significant sum - especially in less expensive markets like OKC.

He's high-profile for sure, but I wouldn't really say he galvanizes Democrats. Certainly not in the same way as someone like Lindsey or Mitch.

[Roll Roons]

Incredible.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1313148250170458113

Hot damn. Wouldn't be surprised if Crenshaw is the top House GOP fundraiser aside from leadership.

[Roll Roons]

NRCC is pulling out of VA-05.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1313300076928872450?s=20

Nice one, VAGOP. This would be avoidable had you not opted for a convention to get rid of an incumbent for the stupidest reason imaginable.

[Roll Roons]

Two things:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1313625405828587526

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1313592764286865415

My guess for the Senate rating change is either Maine to Lean D or South Carolina to Tossup. The most vulnerable House incumbent is Peterson or Horn.

[Roll Roons]

Sabato has a few ratings changes (3 in Senate, 4 in House), all in favor of Dems.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-just-weeks-to-go-trump-is-not-making-up-ground/

Senate:
-GA-Special and KS from Likely R to Lean.
-MS from Safe R to Likely.

House:
-NH-01, PA-07 and PA-08 from Lean D to Likely.
-NY-24 from Lean R to Tossup.

[Roll Roons]

Cook changed seven House ratings, all in favor of Dems.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1314200030279077888

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https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1314273845252104194?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1314323590951641094?s=20

Proud to say I was part of that!

[Roll Roons]

When was the last time we got a GCB number?

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https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315784494742482945?s=20

Beat me to it!

Possibilities:
Texas to Lean R
Alaska to Lean R
Maine to Lean D
North Carolina to Lean D
Michigan to Tossup (they did move Jersey to a tossup in 2018...)

[Roll Roons]

I got 2/3 right.

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315989156435316736