IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Roll Roons]

Old governors always work! Just ask Senators Bayh, Thompson, Strickland...

Interestingly, outgoing or incumbent governors actually work pretty well. Senators Scott, Hassan, Sheheen,, etc.

Shaheen's interesting - she lost as the outgoing governor in 2002, and then won as the former governor in 2008. That said, the general rule still stands that sitting governors do much better than former ones when running for Senate.

[Roll Roons]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Eh, I think the potential for Republican Senate gains in 2022 is pretty limited. Assuming Kelly wins in AZ and Collins wins in GA, the only plausible Republican targets would be NH, AZ, NV, CO and possibly IL if Duckworth is VP, while they would still have to play defense in PA, WI, NC, FL and GA.

[Roll Roons]

Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp have recently launched a new PAC to boost rural Democrats, and Iowa is their first target.

https://onecountryfund.org/news/one-country-project-co-founders-heidi-heitkamp-and-joe-donnelly-launch-political-action-committee-focused-on-rural-voters/
 

[Roll Roons]

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

Yeah, with IceSpear (RIP FF) taking care of the hashtag and the pink heart. It’s mostly a meme to express the hollowness and absurdity/arbitrariness with which the ‘populist’ label is thrown around and to point out how incredibly laughable the clichés about said ‘populist’ voters are, and I can’t say it failed in that regard, even if it triggers certain posters.

Trust me, there are no "populist" tendencies of any stripe in the "ideology" of people who support Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte but can’t bring themselves to vote for Amanda Curtis or Kathleen Williams, regardless of how loosely we define the term without veering into complete absurdity where it loses all of its meaning.

What happened to IceSpear

IceSpear hasn’t logged in for six months.

why? is he good

I mean he based his half his personality on that Matt Bevin was going to win

Then Bevin lost. It hurt his standing in the forum.

I admit I was on the Bevinevitable train, but I didn't over-focus on it.

It wasn't just Bevin. IceSpear has long insisted that no Democrat can win a red state because of "racist hicks". He (accurately) thought this of Phil Bredesen's Senate run, but also Joe Manchin and Doug Jones. Funny thing is that Alben Barkley joined the forum just to rebut IceSpear going on about Bevin's reelection supposedly being inevitable.

[Roll Roons]

I forget, what's the source of that meme?

Steve Bullock, I believe.

No, it’s Jon Tester IIRC.

Yeah, with IceSpear (RIP FF) taking care of the hashtag and the pink heart. It’s mostly a meme to express the hollowness and absurdity/arbitrariness with which the ‘populist’ label is thrown around and to point out how incredibly laughable the clichés about said ‘populist’ voters are, and I can’t say it failed in that regard, even if it triggers certain posters.

Trust me, there are no "populist" tendencies of any stripe in the "ideology" of people who support Jon Tester and Greg Gianforte but can’t bring themselves to vote for Amanda Curtis or Kathleen Williams, regardless of how loosely we define the term without veering into complete absurdity where it loses all of its meaning.

What happened to IceSpear

IceSpear hasn’t logged in for six months.

why? is he good

I mean he based his half his personality on that Matt Bevin was going to win

Then Bevin lost. It hurt his standing in the forum.

I admit I was on the Bevinevitable train, but I didn't over-focus on it.

It wasn't just Bevin. IceSpear has long insisted that no Democrat can win a red state because of "racist hicks". He (accurately) thought this of Phil Bredesen's Senate run, but also Joe Manchin and Doug Jones. Funny thing is that Alben Barkley joined the forum just to rebut IceSpear going on about Bevin's reelection supposedly being inevitable.

That is true. Barkley was the counterweight, insisting the Dems can win in Red States.

Now that I think about it, his insistence wasn't even limited to Democrats. He also thought there was no chance of Steve King losing his primary.

[Roll Roons]

How did Ernst piss away such an easy reelection?

Ernst has always been a weak candidate, but this time she had to run in a non-GOP wave year against someone other than Baroque Balderdash. 

No, I think she was genuinely strong then. Unironically, I’ve heard she’s a very good retail politician so I think her inability to do that is hurting her prospects significantly.