Texas 2022 megathread

[Cyrusman]

Can anyone vote in either primary in TX or is it restricted by party?  Like could Dems sabotage Abbott by voting for West?  In Virginia you can just take either primary ballot (when the GOP decides to actually have primaries that is).

Yes.

In Texas, we don't really have partisan registration.

Everyone is independent. But once you vote in a party's primary, you are with that party for the calendar year. You can't vote in the runoff for the other party.

Damn, why is Lincoln Project not all over this yet.  This calls for Dem dirty tricks.

Like the Lincoln Project would do anything

If anything they'll just endorse the democrat. They even campaigned against Susan Collins in 2020, arguably the most liberal republican in the senate.

Correct me if I’m wrong but members of the Lincoln project are really dems right?
These people do not endorse a single Republican even Collins

[Cyrusman]

About won by 13 points in 2018 which was a blue wave and also Beto was running as a senate candidate that year

Could Abbott in a more favorable year for republicans such as next year win by 15-20 points?

[Cyrusman]

There is a lot that Democrats can use against Abbott in 2022, even more so now, but I just don't think that Texan voters will care or that his opponent will be very good in general. It's a DeSantis situation. Though Abbott doesn't quite have the beginnings of a cult-like following like he does. Abbott will easily win re-election, probably somewhere between his 2018 and 2014 margins. Texas is not going to flip yet, especially not in 2022.

I mean there’s a lot the republicans could have used against Newsom and Cuomo but it did them no good since the states they governed. Cuomo barely resigned

[Cyrusman]

I don't think he's extremely vulnerable, but he's a lot more polarizing now than he was in 2018 and 2014, which is why I think he wins by less than those two elections (despite it being a republican favorable year), especially if dems put up a much more energetic dem like Beto instead of a milquetoast dem like Valdez.

Beto will still be tainted by the comments that need no mention as they've been mentioned to death, but Texas dems love him, like a lot. The race won't be within 5 like Beto vs Cruz, but could be within 10 if dems play their cards right. I'd say Abbott's floor is R+7, ceiling may be 13-14.

Not only that, but there’ll also be a lot of new young voters, many of whom lean to the left and HATE Abbott. Remember Paxton Smith, the Dallas high school valedictorian who gave a pro-abortion speech? We may be seeing her on TV and on the campaign trail a lot helping the democrats beat Abbott, especially on the abortion issue.

2014 I can easily understand but why is he more polarizing   than 2018 when 2018 was a very polarizing  time and a bad year for the GOP.

[Cyrusman]

Beto bungled anx chance to make this kind of competitive by running 4 prez as a very liberal candidate. Race is Likely R at best.

I don't think a lot of people remember that by now. Like they remember he did it, but not the substance. Plus, I can see him being a turnout machine again for liberals.

If he had gone away since then and done nothing, then he'd be remembered for that, but he's been very active in TX since early 2020 in voter registration efforts.

Are peoples memories that bad?